To ask the Secretary of State for Justice, what estimate he has made of the number of people convicted of (a) rape and (b) sexual offences involving children that will be released under the early release scheme in the next five years in Stone, Great Wyrley & Penkridge Constituency.

To ask the Secretary of State for Justice, which offences under the Sexual Offences Act 2003 are excluded from eligibility for the early release scheme.

I extend my sincere sympathy to all victims of these appalling crimes. This Government inherited a prisons system days from collapse. We had no choice but to take decisive action to stop our prisons overflowing and keep the public safe. Our landmark Sentencing Act 2026 will now deliver a more sustainable solution to the prison capacity crisis we inherited, including through the progression model which will help ensure there are always enough places for the courts to be able to send people to custody in order to keep the public safe. The worst thing for victims would be running out of prison space and not being able to lock up dangerous offenders.

The progression model amends release points for offenders on Standard Determinate Sentences.

Over 18,000 offenders serving more serious sentences like extended Determinate Sentences or life sentences will be unaffected by these reforms and will be kept in prison for as long as they are now. Once released, offenders will be managed under strict licence conditions in the community. Offenders released on licence can be recalled if they breach their conditions or if they cannot be safely managed in the community.

It is not possible to estimate sufficiently accurately the number of future releases so far in advance because of the uncertainty of the volume of eligible offenders who will be sentenced to prison in the next 5 years, nor can we estimate any added days for bad behaviour committed which will determine their release point.

The Ministry of Justice routinely publishes Accredited Official Statistics on prisoner releases as part of the Offender Management Statistics Quarterly (OMSQ) publication.