To ask His Majesty's Government what estimate they have made of the number of private schools across the UK that are anticipated to close as a result of charging VAT on fees.

This government is committed to ending the VAT exemption that private schools enjoy. While the impact of this policy is being fully considered, projections by the Institute for Fiscal Studies indicate that the number of pupils who may switch schools as a result of these changes is likely to represent a very small proportion of overall pupil numbers in the state sector, less than 0.5%, with any displacement expected to take place over several years. This research is available here and as attached: https://ifs.org.uk/publications/tax-private-school-fees-and-state-school-spending.

The number of children in private schools has remained steady despite a 20% real terms increase in average private school fees since 2010 and a 55% rise since 2003, illustrating the sector’s adaptability. While the department cannot predict closures, the department will use indicators such as occupancy to monitor this.

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