It is for the Office for Budget Responsibility to provide and publish economic and fiscal forecasting. In its March Economic and Fiscal Outlook the OBR noted that higher inflation was mainly a result of increased global goods and energy prices and a tightening labour market.
It remains challenging to separate out the effects of different events. The Bank of England has also noted that the majority of the increase in inflation since the pandemic is likely due to global factors.The government understands that people across the UK are worried about the rising cost of living. In May, we announced over £15 billion of additional cost of living support, targeted at those with the greatest need. Government support for the cost of living now totals over £37 billion this year, equivalent to 1.5% of GDP.