Emigration

Home Office written question – answered on 9th February 2021.

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Photo of Lord Horam Lord Horam Conservative

To ask Her Majesty's Government what is their central estimate for the total out of country inflows to the UK of (1) EEA long-term workers, (2) EEA dependants, (3) non-EEA workers, and (4) non-EEA dependants, in each of the five years from 2020/21 to 2024/25, arising from the calculations in the Impact Assessment for the Changes in Immigration Rules; and what are the relevant comparator figures for each of the previous five years.

Photo of Baroness Williams of Trafford Baroness Williams of Trafford The Minister of State, Home Department

The information below is taken from modelling underpinning Home Office Impact Assessment HO0376 ‘Impact Assessment for changes to the Immigration Rules for Skilled Workers’, with further details on the modelling framework and limitations of analysis also set out in that document and the ‘Technical Annex to accompany the Impact Assessment for changes to the Immigration Rules for Skilled Workers’.

These documents can be found here: https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/supporting-documents-for-skilled-worker-immigration-rules

Estimates of outflows of long-term EEA and non-EEA workers and their dependants were used to inform the overall estimates of volumes and costs, but not presented separately in the documents above. These estimates are set out in the table below. All figures, including for the period 2016/2017 to 2019/20 are estimates based on modelling.

Year

Estimated Long-Term EEA Worker - Outflow

Estimated Dependants of Long-Term EEA Worker - Outflow

Estimated Long-Term Non-EEA Worker - Outflow

Estimated Dependants of Long-Term Non-EEA Worker - Outflow

2016/17

~50k

~10k

~10k

~5k

2017/18

~70k

~10k

~10k

~5k

2018/19

~55k

~10k

~10k

~5k

2019/20

~75k

~10k

~10k

~10k

2020/21

~70k

~10k

~15k

~10k

2021/22

~65k

~10k

~15k

~10k

2022/23

~50k

~10k

~20k

~15k

2023/24

~40k

~5k

~20k

~15k

2024/25

~35k

~5k

~25k

~20k

Data is rounded to nearest 5,000, and all data are estimates and subject to uncertainty. Dependants refer to dependants associated to main applicants and may not necessarily be of the same nationality as the main applicant. For further information on the modelling process and limitations in analysis please refer to Home Office Impact Assessment HO0376 ‘Impact Assessment for changes to the Immigration Rules for Skilled Workers’, and ‘Technical Annex to accompany the Impact Assessment for changes to the Immigration Rules for Skilled Workers’.

Impact Assessment (pdf, 1409.2KB)

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