The Scientific Advisory Group for Emergencies (SAGE) provides scientific advice to support the Government response to COVID-19. In fulfilling this role SAGE considers a wide range of infectious disease modelling.
Part of this advice includes consensus medium-term projections of hospitalisations and deaths produced by the Scientific Pandemic Influenza Group on Modelling. These represent a scenario in which the trajectory of the epidemic continues to follow current trends. They do not account for the impact of future policy or behaviour changes, nor seasonal effects that may affect transmission.