To ask Her Majesty's Government what estimate they have made of the number of potential additional deaths during any reasonable worst case scenario of a peak in COVID-19 infections during the winter period resulting from continued disruption of routine treatment for non-COVID-19 patients.
To ask Her Majesty's Government what assessment they have made of the impact on public confidence in the safety of returning to work and schools of the forecasted number of deaths resulting from a reasonable worst-case scenario in a resurgence of COVID-19 during the winter being double that that has already occurred.
The Government has undertaken no specific assessment. The Scientific Advisory Group for Emergencies reviewed a paper on direct and indirect impacts of COVID-19 on excess deaths and morbidity in July, which provides a scenario-based estimate for additional deaths that may result from the changes necessary to routine care during the first six months of the pandemic. A copy of the paper is attached.
Direct and indirect impacts of COVID-19 (pdf, 2797.9KB)