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On 14 April, the OBR published a coronavirus reference scenario outlining the potential impact of COVID-19 on the economy and public finances. This was not an official forecast and the OBR highlight that the duration and scale of the economic disruption is highly uncertain. On 14 May the OBR published revised fiscal aggregates and monthly profiles relating to this scenario, estimating PSNB will reach £298.4 billion or 15.2% of GDP in 2020/21. The OBR did not produce an estimate on a per household basis.
While it is clear that the impact of COVID-19 on the economy and the government's necessary response to it will lead to an increase in borrowing this year, the OBR have noted that the costs of inaction would have been greater.