National Income

Treasury written question – answered on 11th June 2020.

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Photo of Preet Kaur Gill Preet Kaur Gill Shadow Secretary of State for International Development

To ask the Chancellor of the Exchequer, what recent forecasts his Department has made of (a) nominal and (b) real Gross National Income for (i) 2020, (ii) 2021, (iii) 2022, (iv) 2023 and (v) 2024.

Photo of John Glen John Glen Minister of State (Treasury) (City), The Economic Secretary to the Treasury

HM Treasury does not produce forecasts of the economy or public finances.

The Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR) is responsible for producing forecasts of the economy and public finances. On 14 April the OBR published a reference scenario assessing the potential impact of coronavirus on the economy and public finances. In this scenario real Gross Domestic Product (GDP) is assumed to fall by 12.8 per cent in 2020 before recovering quickly, growing by 16.1% in 2021. The OBR assume that real GDP grows by 1.5% in 2022, 1.3% in 2023, and 1.4% in 2024. The OBR note that the Government’s policy response should help limit the long-term damage to the economy and public finances.

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