To ask the Secretary of State for Health and Social Care, what the Government’s modelling suggests the peak level of covid-19 infection will be; how many people will be infected at that point; and what the confidence intervals are around that projection.
To ask the Secretary of State for Health and Social Care, if he will publish (a) the Government’s modelling of the delay to and reduction in the peak of the UK covid-19 outbreak (i) most likely to be achieved by the steps announced on 12 March 2020 and (ii) which would be achieved if additional social distancing measures were adopted as of 16 March 2020, (b) the assumptions behind the behavioural models on the (A) level and (B) length of public take up of measures and (c) the sensitivity of the behavioural models to those assumptions.
To ask the Secretary of State for Health and Social Care, what the Government’s modelling estimates the average likelihood is of a UK resident catching covid-19 in the next seven days; and what the estimated peak of the covid-19 outbreak is for (a) individuals who do not follow the Government’s advice on reducing the spread of the virus, (b) individuals who do follow the Government’s advice and (c) individuals who go further than the Government's advice and reduce their social contact.
The Government relies on modelling work undertaken by several academic groups, who report to the Scientific Advisory Group for Emergencies through its various subgroups. A collection of modelling information which has informed decision making on COVID-19 has now been published at the following link: