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Department of Health and Social Care written question – answered on 25th March 2020.

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Photo of Jeremy Hunt Jeremy Hunt Chair, Health and Social Care Committee

To ask the Secretary of State for Health and Social Care, how many covid-19 cases the Government estimates there will be in England at any one time at the peak of the covid-19 outbreak.

Photo of Jo Churchill Jo Churchill The Parliamentary Under-Secretary for Health and Social Care

Holding answer received on 16 March 2020

The Government relies on modelling work undertaken by several academic groups, who report to the Scientific Advisory Group for Emergencies (SAGE) through its various subgroups. SAGE will continue to publish the evidence that it considers.

From modelling and current data on the outbreak, it is likely that the number of confirmed United Kingdom cases will rise, but it is not possible to estimate how many individuals will be infected currently. This will be dependent on the implementation of and adherence to public health measures, and the success of those measures in suppressing transmission of the virus and the numbers of cases of infection.

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