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To ask the Secretary of State for Transport, what estimates were made in his Department’s 2018 road traffic forecasts for the volumes of cycle traffic in England and Wales in (a) 2015, (b) 2020 and (c) in future years modelled, under each of the scenarios modelled; and what the corresponding proportion changes in miles cycled were compared with 2015 levels.
The focus of Road Traffic Forecasts 2018 (RTF18) was to forecast road traffic by motorised modes and does not include forecasts of cycling traffic.
To produce the forecasts, the National Transport Model (NTM) does takes account of the travel choice between walking, cycling, rail and bus as well as car. However, the NTM is not designed to forecast cycling levels, which will be influenced by a range of factors not included in the model.
The Department has a dedicated model which has been designed to account for the specific factors which influence cycling. We plan to include a forecast of cycling demand using this model in an upcoming call for engagement document to be published as part of the Department’s work to develop a transport decarbonisation plan.
In relation to the proportion changes in miles cycled, the Department produces estimates of actual volumes of cycle traffic in Great Britain, the latest estimates for which are 2018. These show that cycling levels on roads in England and Wales increased 3.3% between 2015 and 2018. 2019 estimates are due to be published in June 2020 [Source: 2018 Road Traffic Estimates, https://www.gov.uk/government/collections/road-traffic-statistics/].