The National Risk Register of Civil Emergencies (NRR) is the public-facing version of the National Security Risk Assessment (NSRA), a classified assessment of the key risks that could potentially damage the safety or security of the UK or our interests, both domestically and overseas, in the next two years.
Both the malicious and non-malicious risks included in the NSRA are based on reasonable worst case scenarios informed by the expertise of government departments, academia, private sector and the wider scientific community. The risks are assessed on a) how likely it is that the risk will occur in the next two years and b) the breadth and scale of expected impacts across a number of dimensions were the scenario to occur. Such scenarios are not designed to predict what might happen in the future, but should illustrate the types of capabilities that need to be developed to prepare for, respond to and recover from, civil emergencies.
If a risk satisfies the definition of a ‘civil emergency’ as defined by the Civil Contingencies Act 2004 and exceeds pre-defined thresholds for likelihood and impact, then it will be included in the NSRA. Where sensitivities permit, the NRR will then communicate this risk information to the wider public via its publication on gov.uk.