Brexit

Treasury written question – answered on 9th September 2019.

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Photo of Rosena Allin-Khan Rosena Allin-Khan Shadow Minister (Digital, Culture, Media and Sport) (Sport)

To ask the Chancellor of the Exchequer, what comparative forecast the Government has made of (a) GDP, (b) inflation, (c) foreign direct investment and (d) the UK's balance of trade for the next five years in scenarios in which (i) the UK does not leave the EU, (ii) the UK leaves the EU without deal and (iii) the UK leaves the EU with a deal.

Photo of John Glen John Glen Minister of State (Treasury) (City), The Economic Secretary to the Treasury

HM Treasury does not produce economic forecasts. The independent Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR) is responsible for producing forecasts for the UK economy and public finances. In line with its remit, the OBR’s forecasts include the economic and fiscal impact of government policy on EU exit where the effects can be quantified with reasonable accuracy. The OBR has said that it will adjust its Brexit assumptions when more detail is available on the future trade and migration relationship between the UK and EU.

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