Overseas Trade

Treasury written question – answered at on 4 June 2019.

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Photo of Lord Livermore Lord Livermore Labour

To ask Her Majesty's Government what estimate they have made of the impact on UK GDP from (1) leaving the EU's single market, and (2) negotiating a free trade agreement with the United States.

Photo of Lord Young of Cookham Lord Young of Cookham Lord in Waiting (HM Household) (Whip), Lords Spokesperson (Cabinet Office)

The Government has published a detailed set of economic analyses on the long-term impacts of EU exit on the UK economy, its sectors, nations and regions and the public finances – covering multiple EU exit scenarios. The analysis finds that the spectrum of outcomes for the future UK-EU relationship would deliver significantly higher economic output than the no deal scenario.

In keeping with the government’s ambitious free trade agenda, the analysis assumes that, in the long run, the UK secures agreements with a broad range of potential trading partners, including, but not limited to, the United States, Australia, New Zealand, and other members of the Comprehensive and Progressive Agreement for Trans-Pacific Partnership. The analysis estimates that in the long run these trade agreements could increase UK GDP by up to 0.2 percentage points.

The complete analysis can be found in the “EU Exit: Long-Term Economic Analysis” paper, which is available on the Gov.uk website in Exiting the European Union: Publications section.

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