UK Trade with EU

Department for Exiting the European Union written question – answered on 4th June 2019.

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Photo of Lord Livermore Lord Livermore Labour

To ask Her Majesty's Government what estimate they have made of the impact on the level of (1) imports, and (2) exports, with the EU if the UK were to trade on World Trade Organisation terms alone.

Photo of Lord Callanan Lord Callanan Minister of State (Department for Exiting the European Union)

The Government remains focused on ensuring a smooth and orderly withdrawal from the EU with a deal as soon as possible.

In November 2018, the Government delivered on its commitment to provide appropriate analysis to Parliament with a robust, objective assessment of how exiting the EU may affect the economy of the UK across different EU exit scenarios. The no deal scenario is based on an assessment of the average trade barriers that a country trading on WTO terms faces. Whilst all economic modelling is inherently uncertain, the increase in trade barriers under the modelled no deal scenario is estimated to result in lower UK-EU trade volumes in the long run compared to today's arrangements; (1) UK imports from the EU are estimated to be between 34-43% lower and (2) UK exports to the EU are estimated to be between 30-40% lower.

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