Treasury written question – answered on 3rd December 2018.

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Photo of Preet Kaur Gill Preet Kaur Gill Shadow Minister (International Development)

To ask the Chancellor of the Exchequer, with reference to EU Exit Long-term economic analysis published on 28 November, which of the four scenarios most accurately reflects the Prime Minister's proposed agreement on the withdrawal of the UK from the EU and Euratom.

Photo of John Glen John Glen Minister of State (Treasury) (City), The Economic Secretary to the Treasury

The UK and the EU have agreed the Political Declaration, which sets the framework for the UK’s future relationship with the EU. The UK and the EU recognise that this means there could be a spectrum of different outcomes, and both have agreed that we should be as ambitious as possible. The analysis shows that the modelled White Paper scenario, and the sensitivity modelled around it, would support higher economic output for all sectors, nations and regions than the no deal scenario. The average FTA, EEA-type and no deal scenarios do not deliver the Government’s policy objectives.

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