There has been a long term reduction in annual tobacco duty receipts, driven by above-RPI increases in duty and changing attitudes to smoking. As shown in the published Tobacco Bulletin July 2018.
In their November 2016 Economic and fiscal outlook the Office of Budget Responsibility revised their estimates of the underlying downward trend in clearances of tobacco. This was to account for various factors including weakness in tobacco receipts and the expected effects of the Tobacco Products Directive. Paragraph 4.75 noted that the effect on receipts from the introduction of standardised tobacco packaging is assumed to be captured by this downward trend in clearances across the forecast period.