To ask the Secretary of State for Health and Social Care, what estimate his Department has made for the number cases of (a) diabetes, (b) coronary heart disease and (c) lung cancer for each of the next five years.
The Department does not hold information regarding estimates of the number of cases of coronary heart disease and lung cancer for each of the next five years.
In relation to diabetes, Public Health England has advised that future prevalence in England (the estimated number of people age 16 years or older who have diabetes - diagnosed and undiagnosed) has been estimated as follows:
- 2019 – 4,147,109, 8.7%;
- 2020 – 4,204,334, 8.7%;
- 2025 – 4,511,653, 9.1%;
- 2030 – 4,800,491, 9.3%; and
- 2035 – 5,065,377, 9.5%.
The estimates take into account the age, sex, and ethnic group distribution, as well as deprivation of the area. As with all modelled data, there is a degree of uncertainty associated with these estimates, therefore they should be considered indicative only.