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To ask Her Majesty's Government, further to the remarks made by the Parliamentary Under-Secretary of State for Exiting the European Union on 30 January (HC Deb, col 687) that civil service economic forecasts “are always wrong, and wrong for good reasons”, whether arrangements have been made for an alternative modelling and analysis of possible trade conditions after the UK’s departure from the EU; and if so, what changes in forecasting methods are to be made.
The Government is undertaking a wide range of analysis and preparatory work that will contribute to our exit negotiations with the EU, to define our future partnership with the EU, and to inform our understanding of how EU exit will affect the UK’s domestic policies and frameworks.
As ministers clearly set out in the House, the analysis that appeared in the media contains provisional internal analysis and does not represent Government policy. It is part of a broad ongoing programme of analysis, and further work is in train. The Government has been clear that it will not provide a running commentary on any aspect of this ongoing work.