To ask the Secretary of State for Work and Pensions, what recent estimate her Department has made of the amount of savings that the introduction and roll-out of universal credit will generate for the public purse; and what the evidential basis is for that estimate.
The forecasted exchequer savings from the introduction of Universal Credit are provided in the table below (minus figure indicates a saving):
£ billion unless otherwise stated
Net effect on welfare spending
This forecast is produced by the Office for Budget Responsibility who set out their methodology in the Welfare Trends Report published in January 2018. The full report and accompanying data is available here: http://obr.uk/wtr/welfare-trends-report-january-2018/
In addition we expect the rollout of Universal Credit to generate economic benefits, consistent with the methodology of the Treasury Green Book, of up to £7 bn per annum, as set out in the Universal Credit Business Case, which will come from increased employment.
Some of these economic benefits will result in exchequer savings, but these are not included in the table above.