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House of Lords written question – answered on 2nd April 2014.

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Photo of Lord Oakeshott of Seagrove Bay Lord Oakeshott of Seagrove Bay Liberal Democrat

To ask Her Majesty’s Government what were the detailed assumptions underlying the Office for Budget Responsibility forecast of divergence between the consumer prices index (CPI) and the retail prices index (RPI) measures of inflation over the next five years, leading to an RPI rate almost double the CPI rate, as set out in the Budget 2014 Red Book.

Photo of Lord Deighton Lord Deighton The Commercial Secretary to the Treasury

The independent Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR) are responsible for producing and publishing the official forecasts for inflation in the Consumer Prices Index (CPI) and the Retail Prices Index (RPI). The assumptions underlying their latest forecasts are set out in the Economic and fiscal outlook (EFO), published on 19 March 2014.

The OBR also set out their assessment of the differences between RPI and CPI inflation in their Working Paper No. 2: The long-run difference between RPI and CPI inflation.

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