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To ask the Secretary of State for Energy and Climate Change pursuant to the oral answer of 11 July 2013, Official Report, columns 625-26, on energy demand, what estimate his Department has made of the (a) de-rated capacity margin and (b) likelihood of some customer disconnections in (i) 2013-14, (ii) 2014-15, (iii) 2015-16, (iv) 2016-17, (v) 2017-18, (vi) 2018-19 and (vii) 2019-20.
We have not published a recent estimate of (a) de-rated capacity margins or (b) the likelihood of customer disconnections for the period in question.
The last published assessment of capacity margins by this Department was in October last year in DECC's response to the 2012 Ofgem Capacity Assessment which was an annex to the 2012 Statutory Security of Supply Report. This also included an estimate of the likelihood of customer disconnections in 2015-16:
Since this publication, there have been a number of developments in the market which have affected capacity margins as Ofgem set out in their 2013 Capacity Assessment report. In addition, in June the Government announced that the first Capacity Market auction would be run in 2014 for delivery in 2018-19.
We will publish an up-to-date security of supply forecast later this year in our response to the 2013 Ofgem Capacity Assessment.