Energy and Climate Change written question – answered at on 2 September 2013.
To ask the Secretary of State for Energy and Climate Change what estimate his Department has made of the cost to the UK of complying with the Climate Change Act 2008.
The Climate Change Act 2008 sets in place a legally binding target for the UK to reduce greenhouse gas emissions by 80% on 1990 levels by 2050:
http://www.legislation.gov.uk/ukpga/2008/27/pdfs/ukpga_20080027_en.pdf
There are uncertainties around how this 2050 target will be met. However, in the Carbon Plan (December 2011), the Department put forward four plausible example pathways that meet the target:
Details of the pathways, including associated estimates of full energy system costs, can be examined in the report and using the 2050 Calculator: a tool which allows users to examine the full range of physically possible scenarios for meeting the 2050 target:
http://2050-calculator-tool.decc.gov.uk/
The costs of technologies out to 2050 are uncertain, however the following table shows our best estimates for the four pathways, which vary between £4,735 and £5,329 per person per year on average between 2010 and 2050. These costs include all capital, operating and fuel costs for the whole energy system including cars, trains, planes, power stations, boilers and insulation, but exclude the damage costs of climate change and the costs of changing people's behaviour, such as encouraging them to turn down their thermostat. The table also shows that if climate change wasn't tackled, the cost would be £4,690 per person per year on average between 2010 and 2050; however, if climate change damage costs were also included, the cost-would be even higher.
These are just some of the possible scenarios. It might be cheaper to meet the carbon target than not, even if the costs of climate change damage are excluded. This depends on the future cost of fossil fuels, the extent to which technologies such as electric vehicles fall in cost and the extent to which people are willing to change behaviour. Using the tool, members of the public can explore these uncertainties.
Amortised annual per capita total energy system costs to 2050 | |
Pathway | Total (£) |
Not tackling climate change | 4,690 |
Higher renewables | 5,120 |
Higher nuclear | 5,329 |
Higher CCS | 5,265 |
MARKAL 3.26 | 4,735 |
Note: Based on 2050 Calculator version 3.4.6. |
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