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For strategic purposes HMRC does not use employment forecasts by age group as they do not always prove reliable and are not critical to its planning. HMRC bases its planning on population growth, and predicted churn in the working population. It does identify the assumed population reaching working age to forecast broad numbers of NI numbers issued. Employment levels by age band are not used, as even if employment is fluctuating HMRC will continue to experience “churn” in the PAYE, tax credit and self-assessment populations, and there is no clear correlation with employment levels that we can rely on.