Treasury written question – answered at on 14 February 2011.
To ask the Chancellor of the Exchequer with reference to the June 2010 Budget, page 104, footnote 1, what his most recent estimate is of (a) cyclically-adjusted net borrowing and (b) cyclically-adjusted surplus on the budget for each year from 1997-98 to 2010-11.
In their 'Economic and Fiscal forecast', published on
http://budgetresponsibility.independent.gov.uk/d/econ_fiscal_outlook_291110.pdf
Outturn figures for these cyclically-adjusted aggregates in previous years can be found in the public finances databank on the Treasury website:
http://www.hm-treasury.gov.uk/psf_statistics.htm
The following table shows cyclically adjusted public sector net borrowing and cyclically adjusted surplus on current budget since 1997-98.
% GDP | ||
Cyclically adjusted public sector net borrowing | Cyclically adjusted current budget | |
1997-98 | 0.6 | -0.1 |
1998-99 | -0.2 | 0.9 |
1999-2000 | -1.1 | 1.7 |
2000-01 | -1.1 | 1.6 |
2001-02 | 0.2 | 0.9 |
2002-03 | 1.9 | -0.6 |
2003-04 | 2.6 | -1.2 |
2004-05 | 3.1 | -1.4 |
2005-06 | 2.8 | -0.9 |
2006-07 | 2.3 | -0.4 |
2007-08 | 2.6 | -0.6 |
2008-09 | 6.3 | -3.1 |
2009-10(1) | 8.8 | -5.3 |
2010-11 | 7.6 | -4.7 |
201 1-12 | 5.3 | -3.3 |
2012-13 | 3.5 | -1.8 |
2013-14 | 1.9 | -0.5 |
2014-15 | 0.8 | 0.5 |
2015-16 | 0.3 | 0.9 |
(1) Source: OBR's November Economic and Fiscal Outlook. |
The OBR has not published estimates of the output gap or cyclically adjusted balances prior to 2009. The estimates prior to 2009-10 are based on Treasury estimates of trend output and the output gap from the March Budget.
The OBR have indicated that they expect to publish analysis of the output gap pre 2009 this year which will explore different methodologies for evaluating it.
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