House of Lords written question – answered at on 9 December 2010.
Lord Barnett
Labour
To ask Her Majesty's Government what is their latest estimate of the percentage of gross domestic product which will be represented by the National Debt in 2015.
Lord Sassoon
The Commercial Secretary to the Treasury
The Office for Budget Responsibility, in its November 2010 Economic and Fiscal Outlook, forecast public sector net debt as a percentage of gross domestic product for 2014-15 at 68.8 per cent.
| Table 4.1: Fiscal forecast overview | |||||||
| Per cent of GDP | |||||||
| Outturn | Forecasts | ||||||
| 2009-10 | 2010-11 | 2011-12 | 2012-13 | 2013-14 | 2014-15 | 2015-16 | |
| Surplus on current budget | -7.6 | -7.2 | -5.6 | -3.9 | -2.1 | -0.6 | 0.3 |
| Public sector net borrowing | 11.1 | 10.0 | 7.6 | 5.6 | 3.5 | 1.9 | 1.0 |
| Public sector net debt1 | 53.5 | 60.8 | 66.3 | 69.1 | 69.7 | 68.8 | 67.2 |
| Cyclically-adjusted surplus on current budget | -5.3 | -4.7 | -3.3 | -1.8 | -0.5 | 0.5 | 0.9 |
| Cyclically-adjusted net borrowing | 8.8 | 7.6 | 5.3 | 3.5 | 1.9 | 0.8 | 0.3 |
| Changes since June forecast | |||||||
| Surplus on current budget | -0.1 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.3 |
| Public sector net borrowing | 0.1 | -0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.0 | -0.1 | -0.1 |
| Public sector net debt1 | 0.0 | -1.1 | -0.9 | -0.7 | -0.7 | -0.6 | -0.1 |
| Cyclically-adjusted surplus on current budget | 0.0 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| Cyclically-adjusted net borrowing | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
1 Debt at end March; GDP centred on end March.
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