Work and Pensions written question – answered on 12th November 2010.

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Photo of Lindsay Roy Lindsay Roy Labour, Glenrothes

To ask the Secretary of State for Work and Pensions what estimate his Department has made of the number of people likely to become long-term unemployed in the next four years.

Photo of Steve Webb Steve Webb The Minister of State, Department for Work and Pensions

The Department does not produce forecasts of long term unemployment. The Department produces projections for business planning purposes which are aligned to the overall independent claimant count forecast published by the Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR) alongside the June 2010 Budget. These projections are not OBR forecasts.

The available projections are in the table.

Long term unemployed (GB)
2011-12 189,000
2012-13 179,000
2013-14 172,000
2014-15 152,000

1. For the purposes of this answer long-term unemployed is assumed to mean those claiming jobseekers' allowance for 12 months or longer.

2. Figures are for Great Britain, rounded to the nearest thousand and are an average point-in-time caseload for each financial year. They do not represent the numbers reaching 12 months in receipt of jobseeker's allowance.

3. Figures are subject to a significant degree of uncertainty.


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