Housing: Immigration

Communities and Local Government written question – answered on 27th July 2010.

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Photo of James Clappison James Clappison Conservative, Hertsmere

To ask the Secretary of State for Communities and Local Government what his most recent assessment is of the likely effect of immigration on the level of demand for housing in England in the next 20 years.

Photo of Andrew Stunell Andrew Stunell The Parliamentary Under-Secretary for Communities and Local Government

The potential future demand for housing can be informed by CLG's household projections. The latest projections were published on the CLG website in March 2009

http://www.communities.gov.uk/publications/corporate/statistics/2031households0309 and are based on the 2006-based population projections produced by the Office for National Statistics. They provide a long term view of the net growth in the number of households given a projected population and previous demographic trends. As such the household projections do not take into account changes in policy or economic circumstances that may have a material effect on future household formation and do not explicitly reflect the different tenure pattern and household formation of migrant groups. The household projections reflect a net position; the number of newly forming households net of those that dissolve. Using the zero net migration population variant it is estimated that net international migration could account, on average, for 40% of the net growth in households in England over the projection period from 2006 to 2031.

However, this does not directly equate to the actual effective demand for housing. This will also be determined by factors such as the ability of individual households to meet the cost of housing which is in turn influenced by the wider economic context. These projections also do not take into account the 2008-based population projections, subsequently published by the ONS, which include lower projected levels of net international migration. CLG expect to publish 2008-based household projections later this year.

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