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Fuels: Prices

Business, Enterprise and Regulatory Reform written question – answered on 1st July 2008.

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Photo of Norman Baker Norman Baker Shadow Secretary of State for Transport

To ask the Secretary of State for Business, Enterprise and Regulatory Reform on what dates since 1 May 1997 his Department has re-evaluated its oil price projections for 2020; and what the projected figure was on each date.

Photo of Malcolm Wicks Malcolm Wicks Minister of State (Energy), Department for Business, Enterprise & Regulatory Reform

holding answer 24 June 2008

The following table shows assumptions published by BERR for the crude oil price in dollars per barrel, listed in terms of 2007 prices for consistency. Prior to 2000 fossil fuel prices were projected on a less frequent basis so a 1995 assumption is provided.

Projections of the oil price are made for the purpose of providing assumptions to be used in modelling work within the Department, with the focus on long-term sustainable prices and a range of plausible outcomes. The price assumptions are consistent with similar forecasts made at the time. The current projections are compiled following a Call for Evidence and reflect feedback from stakeholders. BERR has committed to updating these projections roughly twice a year.

Table—Oil price projections for 2020 ($/barrel) in low, central and high scenarios. For comparison all figures have been inflated to 2007prices using the ONS GDP deflator.

Publication and date assumption made Low Central High
Energy Paper 65 (March 1995) 24.3 56.8
Energy Paper 68 (November 2000) 12.2 24.4
EU Emissions Trading scheme—National allocation Plan (November 2004) 30.7
Updated Fossil Fuel 27.1 37.9 48.7
Price Assumptions (August 2005)
Energy Review (July 2006) 21.2 47.7 76.3
Energy White Paper (May 2007) 25.8 54.7 82.5
Updated Fossil Fuel Price Assumptions (March 2008) 45.0 70.0 95.0 (High Scenario) 150.0 (High-High scenario)

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