UK Air Passenger Demand and CO2 Forecasts (published 2007) reports the latest air passenger demand forecasts and economic benefits of additional airport capacity. It explains (page 88) that aviation fuel prices were projected by combining the Department for Business, Enterprise and Regulatory Reform projection of crude oil prices with the strong historical relationship between oil and aviation fuel prices.
These projections were made during 2007 from the most recent complete annual outturn data available at the time, which was 2006. The 2006 aviation fuel price was assumed to be $0.53 per litre, or 28 pence per litre.
UK Air Passenger Demand and CO2 Forecasts also shows that the forecasts and economic benefits of additional airport capacity it reports are robust to a range of sensitivity tests, including oil prices. The report is available at: