Migration

Communities and Local Government written question – answered on 16th January 2007.

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Photo of Caroline Spelman Caroline Spelman Shadow Secretary of State (Office of the Deputy Prime Minister)

To ask the Secretary of State for Communities and Local Government what her Department's latest estimate is of net migration (a) per year and (b) over the next 20 years into (i) each Government Office region in England and (ii) England.

Photo of John Healey John Healey The Financial Secretary to the Treasury

I have been asked to reply.

The information requested falls within the responsibility of the National Statistician, who has been asked to reply.

Letter from Colin Mowl, dated 16 January 2007:

As National Statistician, I have been asked to reply to your question about the latest estimates of net migration (a) per year and (b) over the next 20 years at England and Government Office Region level. I am replying in her absence. (114499)

The Office for National Statistics publishes international migration estimates for calendar years in its migration annual reference volume (series MN) which can be found on the ONS website at http://nswebcopy/STATBASE/Product.asp?vlnk=507. The most recent estimates on this basis are for 2004.

Mid-year to mid-year estimates of net international migration are calculated as a component of change within the official population estimates. Table 1 shows the 2003-04 and 2004-05 net international migration used in these estimates.

The ONS is also responsible for the regular production of official national and subnational population projections. In producing these, the ONS makes assumptions on the future levels of international migration over the projected period. These assumptions are based upon observed historic trends in migration and are the subject of a consultation with key users and local authorities. Table 2 shows the assumptions on future levels of net international migration for years 2005-06 to 2007-08 as used in the most recent, 2004-based, sets of projections. The international migration assumptions for the year 2007-08 are the long-term assumptions and remain at the same level for the following 20 years. Note that these assumptions are based on historic data to mid 2004 only and so are not consistent with the 2004-05 estimates shown in Table 1.

Table 1: Net international migration( 1) for England and Government Office Regions used in the mid-year estimates
Thousand
2003-04 2004-05
England 165 234
North East 4 12
NorthWest 14 10
Yorkshire and The Humber 17 12
East Midlands 4 7
West Midlands 10 24
East 0 23
London 101 116
South East 8 27
South West 5 4
(1) Excludes cross border flows to and from other UK countries

Source:

Office for National Statistics

Table 2: Net international migration( 1) for England and Government Office Regions used in the 2004-based subnational population projections
Thousand
2005-06 2006-07 ( 2) 2007-08
England 182 160 138
North East 5 5 4
North West 13 11 9
Yorkshire and The Humber 20 19 17
East Midlands 4 3 2
West Midlands 13 11 10
East 5 3 2
London 100 91 83
South East 17 13 10
South West 5 3 2
(1) Excludes cross border flows to and from other UK countries

(2) The international migration assumptions for the year 2007-08 are the long-term assumptions and remain at the same level for the following 20 years

Source:

Office for National Statistics

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