Work and Pensions written question – answered at on 10 July 2006.
To ask the Secretary of State for Work and Pensions what proportion of pensioners will be eligible for means-tested assistance (a) under present policies and (b) under the proposals in the White Paper in each year up to 2020.
holding answer
The information requested is not available in full. Information relating to pension credit is shown in the following tables. This includes the majority of pensioner households eligible for means-tested assistance.
Table 1 shows the estimated proportion of all pensioner households eligible for pension credit for 2006-07 and 2007-08 and Table 2 shows projections from 2008-09 to 2020-21.
Table 1: Estimated proportion of pensioner households eligible for pension credit under the current system | |
Percentage | |
2006-07 | 45 |
2007-08 | 46 |
Table 2: Projected proportion of pensioner households eligible for pension credit for selected years under the current system and the White Paper proposals | ||
Percentage under: | ||
Current system | White Paper proposals | |
2008-09 | 46 | 45 |
2009-10 | 46 | 45 |
2010-11 | 46 | 44 |
2011-12 | 48 | 45 |
2012-13 | 48 | 45 |
2013-14 | 48 | 44 |
2014-15 | 49 | 44 |
2015-16 | 50 | 44 |
2016-17 | 50 | 43 |
2017-18 | 50 | 42 |
2018-19 | 51 | 41 |
2019-20 | 53 | 41 |
2020-21 | 54 | 41 |
Notes: 1. Projections of the proportion of pensioner households eligible for pension credit are sensitive to modelling assumptions and to projected changes in the distribution of pensioner incomes. 2. The estimate of proportions shown are the mid-points of projections taken from two separate micro-simulation models. Modelling of the reform proposals does not assume any increase in private saving from the introduction of personal accounts, which would further reduce the numbers eligible for pension credit. 3. The projections under the current system assume that basic state pension is uprated in line with prices and the standard guarantee credit with earnings each year. It should be noted that there is a Government commitment to uprate the standard guarantee credit with earnings until 2008. Treasury projections for the current system assume price uprating of the standard guarantee credit beyond 2008. 4. The reform projections assume: continued earnings uprating of the standard guarantee credit; the savings credit maximum is uprated by earnings from 2008 and then by prices from 2015; earnings uprating of the basic state pension from 2012; measures to improve coverage of the basic state pension described in the White Paper. 5. Estimates cover all those aged above women's state pension age in the private household population of Great Britain. 6. Estimates account for equalisation of state pension age between 2010 and 2020. 7. Estimates are calibrated to the mid-points of the 2004-05 National Statistics range estimates of non-eligibility to pension credit, which adjust 2004-05 Family Resources Survey data to take account of possible biases in reporting. Although the estimates are not presented as ranges, they are subject to a margin of uncertainty. |
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