Transport written question – answered at on 27 March 2006.
To ask the Secretary of State for Transport which major (a) road, (b) rail and (c) other schemes approved since 1997 have assessed future patronage or traffic levels based on (i) a fixed trip matrix and (ii) other forecast models.
holding answer
The Department does not ordinarily compile information on the modelling technique used by external promoters in assessing future patronage; to compile a list of schemes on this basis would be prohibitively expensive. However, scheme promoters are expected to use appropriate techniques in the appraisals of a project, using the guidance published by the Department.
Since 1997, of some sixty Highways Agency road schemes that have been approved, around 90 per cent. were appraised using a fixed trip matrix method to assess future traffic levels; a similar proportion would be expected for local authority major road schemes. The 'elasticity' approach has been the alternative used in larger schemes. This technique models the growth in traffic induced by the completion of a transport improvement—something a fixed trip matrix would notdo. The Department for Transport has recently published guidance for road scheme promoters to encourage greater use of improved 'variable demand' appraisal techniques. All rail schemes are assessed using an 'elasticity' approach. In the largest schemes, affecting a number of modes, full multi-modal studies are conducted which would better articulate modal change as well as induced traffic.
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