Treasury written question – answered on 14th February 2006.

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Photo of Sir David Amess Sir David Amess Conservative, Southend West

To ask the Chancellor of the Exchequer what his estimate is of the current population of (a) each Essex borough and (b) each ward in Southend West constituency based on (i) the 2001 Census, (ii) electoral rolls and (iii) health service users; and what projections he has made for the next five years.

Photo of Ivan Lewis Ivan Lewis The Economic Secretary to the Treasury

The information requested falls within the responsibility of the National Statistician who has been asked to reply.

Letter from Karen Dunnell, dated 14 February 2006

As National Statistician, I have been asked to reply to your question regarding the current population of (a) each Essex borough and (b) each ward in Southend West constituency based on (i) the 2001 Census, (ii) electoral rolls, and (iii) health service users; and what projections have been made for the next five years. (50479)

The tables attached provide the information you have requested. Data for Essex local authorities, including the former Essex authorities of Southend-on-Sea and Thurrock, are shown in Table 1 and Table 2. Data for wards in Southend West are shown in table 3.

ONS publishes annual mid-year population estimates. The latest estimates are for mid-2004 and are given in Table 1. These mid-year population estimates are calculated using a robust methodology and are the best estimates of the resident population in an area. They are based on aged-on 2001 Census data adjusted for births, deaths, and net migration. Further information on the methodology can be found at:


Population projections for each local authority in Essex, for mid-2005 to mid-2010, are also given in Table 1. These projections are based on the mid-2003 population estimates and are the latest population projections available. They assume that trends in fertility, mortality and migration at the time of the mid-2003 population estimate will continue into the future.

Electoral rolls provide counts of the number of people registered to vote. The latest available data, on the local/European electorate and the Parliamentary electorate, for local authorities in Essex can be found in the Table 2. These data are for 1 December 2004. It should be noted that the number of people eligible to vote is not the same as the resident population aged 18 and over. There are numerous reasons for this. For example not everyone who is usually resident is entitled to vote (foreign citizens from outside of the EU and Commonwealth, prisoners, etc. are not eligible), some people do not register to vote and people who have more than one address may register in more than one place. Further, there is inevitably some double counting of the registered electorate as electoral registration officers vary in how quickly they remove people from the registers after they have moved away from an area or after they have died. These factors have a differential impact from area to area.

The number of people registered with a GP, living in each local authority in Essex, in July 2004, can also be found in the Table 2. It should also be noted that patient register counts differ from estimates of the usually resident population for a number of reasons.

Patient registers include people who are in the country for at least three months, whereas population estimates are based on a usual residence definition requiring a stay of 12 months or more. The patient registers exclude individuals who are ineligible to be registered with a GP. People may be on a patient register after having left the country and not deregistered with their GP; similarly people may have moved to another area and not re-registered. Some patients may have more than one NHS number e.g. they may have been issued a temporary number for a short period. Again, these factors have a differential impact from place to place.

Ward data are shown in Table 3; the points set out above also apply to wards. However, there are some further points to note for wards.

The most recent population estimates for wards are for mid-2002. The closest available geography to current electoral wards, for which population estimates are available, is Census Area Statistics (CAS) wards. This geography was created for outputs from the 2001 Census and is based mainly on 2003 electoral wards. The CAS ward level population estimates have been published with the status of experimental statistics". Therefore, the estimates, and figures derived from them, should be treated with some care. The margin of confidence for population estimates is proportionately larger at ward level than at local authority level.

The ONS does not produce projections of population at ward level.

Table 3 contains CAS ward electorate counts for December 2002 and 2004 as well as patient register figures for July 2002 and July 2004. The 2002 figures are given for comparison with population estimates and 2004 are the latest available data.

Finally, the local government electorate is definitionally closer to the population estimates, however these data are not available at ward level. Hence, the Parliamentary electorate is shown.

Table 1: Mid-2004 population estimates and mid-2005 to mid-2010 population projections (2003-based )
Population estimate Population projections(9)
Mid-2004 Mid-2005 Mid-2006 Mid-2007 Mid-2008 Mid-2009 Mid-2010
Southend-on-Sea 159.6 161.0 161.4 161.8 162.3 162.8 163.4
Thurrock 145.7 147.6 148.8 150.0 151.1 152.3 153.5
Basildon 166.5 166.9 167.2 167.5 167.8 168.2 168.6
Braintree 136.2 138.7 140.6 142.4 144.1 145.8 147.5
Brentwood 70.2 69.4 69.3 69.2 69.2 69.1 69.1
Castle Point 86.8 87.6 87.9 88.2 88.4 88.7 89.0
Chelmsford 159.8 159.2 159.6 159.9 160.4 160.8 161.2
Colchester 160.7 160.3 161.1 161.9 162.7 163.5 164.3
Epping Forest 121.3 121.8 122.1 122.4 122.7 123.1 123.5
Harlow 77.5 77.9 77.9 78.0 78.1 78.2 78.3
Maldon 60.3 61.5 62.1 62.8 63.5 64.1 64.8
Rochford 79.1 80.0 80.5 81.0 81.5 82.0 82.4
Tendring 141.5 143.7 145.2 146.6 148.1 149.6 151.0
Uttlesford 70.4 70.7 71.0 71.3 71.7 72.0 72.3

(9) The population projections shown in this table are taken from the 2003-based subnational population projections, the latest set of projections currently available. Therefore they may not be consistent with the 2004 mid year estimate presented in the first column.


Office for National Statistics

Table 2: Electoral register counts (December 2004) and patient register counts (July 2004)
Electors(10) Parliamentary electors(11) Patient register
Southend-on-Sea 125,485 124,491 176,781
Thurrock 107,264 106,736 148,941
Basildon 127,487 126,889 179,677
Braintree 105,204 104,658 141,950
Brentwood 53,277 52,838 75,669
Castle Point 69,378 69,188 92,654
Chelmsford 126,748 125,948 167,686
Colchester 123,060 121,535 167,076
Epping Forest 92,249 91,429 127,977
Harlow 55,609 55,172 84,296
Maldon 46,111 45,931 63,449
Rochford 63,384 63,212 83,699
Tend ring 109,242 108,839 142,897
Uttlesford 54,873 54,323 74,976
Southend West Constituents 65,523 65,070 91,494

(10) Local government electors are those people who are entitled to vote in local elections and who meet the residence qualification. These include Peers and European citizens but exclude overseas voters.

(11) Parliamentary electors are those people who are entitled to vote in parliamentary elections at Westminster and who meet the residence qualification. Those include overseas voters but exclude Peers and European citizens.


Office for National Statistics.

Table 3: CAS wards in Southend West parliamentary constituency: population estimates, 2001 census, electorate counts, and patient register counts
Ward code Ward name Population Estimate



December 2002


December 2004

Patient Register

July 2002

Patient Register

July 2004

00KFMP Belfairs 8,871 7,315 7,373 9,426 9,568
00KFMQ Blenheim Park 10,035 7,565 7,684 10,805 10,816
00KFMR Chalkwell 9,287 7,221 7,368 10,387 10,356
00KFMS Eastwood Park 9,343 7,555 7,663 9,787 9,929
00KFMU Leigh 9,004 6,998 7,120 9,727 9,794
00KFMX Prittlewell(12) 9,575 7,617 7,521 10,267 10,429
00KFMY St Laurence 9,678 7,468 7,597 10,139 10,154
00KFNE Westborough 10,214 6,873 7,102 11,014 11,113
00KFNF West Leigh 8,668 6,886 6,931 9,210 9,335

(12) This ward also falls within Rochford and Southend East Parliamentary Constituency. Data for the whole ward are shown, as it is not possible to split this data for this ward into the two constituencies.


1. The mid-2002 ward population estimates are consistent with the published mid-2002 local authority estimates (September 2004 revisions).

2. Whilst the ward population estimates are produced down to unit level, it is not implied that the estimates are accurate to this level of detail.

3. The electorate counts are taken from the statutory RPF 29 returns.


Office for National Statistics

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