To ask the Secretary of State for Health what estimate he has made of
(1) the cumulative percentage increases in age-standardised projected demand for care home places for older people from 2001 levels, in (a) England and (b) each local authority providing social services, in each year from 2001 to 2011;
(2) age-standardised demand for care home places for older people (a) in England and (b) in each local authority responsible for social services in each year from 2001 to 2011.
The Performance Assessment Framework Indicator C26 shows the usage of residential and nursing care homes by each local council in England for people aged 65 and over and indicator C32 the usage of home care. Copies of the 'Social Services Performance Assessment Framework Indicators, 2000–01' are available in the Library.
Recent work by the Personal Social Services Research Unit (PSSRU) at the London School of Economics, commissioned by the Department, suggests that, in England, residential care places for older people will need to increase by 7.2 per cent. over the period 2000 to 2010 and that nursing care places for older people will need to increase by 7.7 per cent. The research also suggests that home care hours for older people will need to increase by 7.5 per cent. over the same period. These projections assume current patterns of care. The pressures may change as a result of government policies. Projections are not available for each council with social services responsibility or for individual years.
Further information on these projections and the model on which they are based can be found in the recent report by the PSSRU on "Demand for Long Term Care for Older People in England", published in Health Statistics Quarterly 12, Winter 2001, a copy of which is in the Library.