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I declare an interest; I was for 30 years a breast cancer surgeon, and I am co-chair of the all-party parliamentary group on breast cancer. Cancer affects one in three people in the United Kingdom at this point, but that is expected to rise to one in two for the population born after 1960. Part of the reason for that is that we live longer, and unfortunately still have not improved our lifestyles to a significant degree. In particular, we all know about smoking and cancer, but we should also be aware that obesity is the second most common driver of cancer, and is increasing.
Mr Baron spoke about process targets—particularly on waiting times. I remember when the cancer-specific waiting times came in, in Scotland, and I welcomed them. Before that, there was only the standard waiting time of 18 weeks. If a manager was told, “We are struggling to keep up with breast cancer”, but the 18 weeks had not been exceeded, there was no interest. That is the problem with any target; once a target is set, anything that is not subject to a target starts to be neglected. We welcomed targets at first. As the hon. Gentleman mentioned, the 31-day target is either being met, or is close to being met, because once people are diagnosed, all four NHSs switch into high gear and manage to treat people within the 31 days.
The problem is that that is only a little bit of the journey. The 62 days are meant to cover the time from seeing the GP to the referral to the clinic, from the clinic to the diagnosis, from the diagnosis to discussion and planning and a multidisciplinary team meeting, and from that point to the first treatment. If we look into it, the delay is often between being seen in the clinic and the diagnosis. With breast cancer we luckily tend to meet the 62-day target at around 95%, because our clinics are largely one stop. The patient usually gets all the tests on one day. However, in England the 62-day figure is below 83%, even though the 31-day figure is over 97%, and we can see how big the fall is, in trying to get people diagnosed. There is a huge workforce challenge in radiology, and in breast cancer a cliff edge is coming, because the generation who were appointed when screening started in 1991 are all retiring right now, and that is a real issue.
As I said earlier, in an intervention, it is not just a question of the time on the pathway; the biggest delay is getting people to go to see their GP. We need to get rid of the fear, embarrassment and stigma, particularly when a more embarrassing part of the body is involved.
We all run projects such as, in Scotland, Detect Cancer Early, and in England, Be Clear on Cancer, but it is important that such campaigns bubble along, rather than become intense. People need to see those adverts when it is in the back of their head that, yes, perhaps their bowel habits have changed, there is blood in their urine, or they find a lump. If that happened six months ago, it is no use. When we ran our first Detect Cancer Early campaign in Scotland with the comedian Elaine C. Smith, it was very humorous and well picked up. We got a 50% increase in people referred to breast clinics, but there was no significant difference in the diagnosis of cancer. It meant that the clinics were completely overwhelmed. We were doing clinics at night and at weekends to try to catch up, but the people who had cancer actually ended up waiting longer for their diagnosis. It is important that we generate not fear but education, and that first experience was taken into account in future campaigns.
Early detection has been mentioned, and screening is the best way of doing that if the cancer is screenable. Such screening will result in an increased incidence of cancer. People often do not think about the fact that if screening is introduced or expanded, or the technique is improved, more cancers will be diagnosed. The system must be ready to deal with that, and we need not to see it as a negative.
Since bowel screening was introduced in Scotland, there has been an 18% drop in colon cancer in men. Bowel screening, which was debated in this Chamber this morning, is not just a screening technique; it is actually preventive. When we test for blood in the stool, we can also diagnose polyps, which can then be treated to avoid them developing into cancer. That is a drop of almost one fifth over 10 years in our incidence of colon cancer. Bowel screening in Scotland starts from the age of 50 and runs to 75. Those over the age of 75 can request a kit, but they will not be sent it automatically. We have now moved to the faecal immunochemical test, which requires only one sample. It is also more sensitive, and there seems to be an almost 10% increase in uptake. Again, that will mean more colonoscopies and more diagnoses, and people must be prepared for that.
Process and outcome targets have been mentioned, but an important group of targets in between is those on quality of treatment. It is not good enough just to leave things to clinical commissioning groups or cancer alliances to work out the best way to treat various types of cancer. The data are international and national, and we need a group of experts to pool them together and come up with something that no one will quibble about, and that everyone agrees is what we should be aiming to achieve for various cancers, in people’s surgeries, after their diagnoses, and with their radiation or chemo.
In 2000, what is now called Healthcare Improvement Scotland developed clinical cancer standards for the four common cancers. I had the honour to lead on the development of breast cancer standards, and I led that project until 2011. We are now on the fifth iteration of our standards, and they have been slimmed down. We have moved from looking at four cancers in 2002, to 11 cancers in 2012, and now 18 cancers have detailed clinical targets for which they are audited, and for which peer review takes place. We do not set league tables, but we set standards that every unit can aim to pass. There is no point in being told, “The best unit is 500 miles away”; people want their local unit to be good.
The first two standards in our quality performance indicators state that every patient with breast cancer must be discussed at a multidisciplinary team meeting, and that patients must be diagnosed non-operatively by needle biopsy. When I started in my unit in the mid-1990s, our pre-op diagnosis rate was about 40%; it is now about 98%. If those two standards had been in place in England, the rogue surgeon Ian Paterson might have been picked up earlier. We now know that he tended to make his own treatment decisions, and he operated on women without proof of cancer. Obviously, the standards cover all sorts of things, including surgery, diagnosis, chemo and radiotherapy. Data are collected at the MDT meeting with a member of audit staff present. That means that they can capture evidence of recurrence and patients who develop metastatic disease, and everyone on the team is aware that that has happened.
To respond to the point raised by Karen Lee, my unit discussed whether we would have separate cancer nurse specialists for those with recurrent or secondary disease, or whether it would be better if the original nurse followed the patient through, and that is what we went for—our nurses work between the surgical clinic and oncology, so that people see a face they already know. Having done it for years, I know that breaking bad news a second time is infinitely worse than breaking it the first time.
In England there are screening data from breast cancer and guidelines from the National Institute for Health and Care Excellence. There are, however, no audit data that are peer reviewed and compared. We get no financial reward for improvement in our targets. Money is not part of it; it is simple, clinical pride, and a wee touch of competitiveness. In Scotland we meet every year in the breast cancer service, and our data are put up. That is open and public; people can look for any of our reports on the internet, and they will see all the details about the numbers of patients treated and what has been achieved. Peer review and peer pressure is a great way to drive up quality.
The hon. Member for Basildon and Billericay mentioned early diagnosis and the need for one-year outcome figures, but spending all the money to gain another couple of per cent in a waiting time is not necessarily the best way to go. A comparison was made between breast cancer treatment in the UK and in Denmark, and because of screening—the UK was one of the earliest nations to pick up breast screening as a population screening—we have a higher percentage of patients diagnosed at stage 1 than Denmark. We do not, however, have a better survival rate because we have very slow access to new drugs. It takes new, expensive cancer drugs three or five years to get into common use. Yes, if someone is diagnosed early they might not need those drugs, but if they are unlucky enough to have a really nasty, aggressive cancer, they may end up fighting to get them.