To ask the Scottish Government what its response is to the prison population reaching a record high of 8,430 prisoners. (S6T-02716)

Recognising that there is no single or quick solution, the Government has taken decisive action to address the rising prison population. We have expanded home detention curfew and invested an additional £25 million over two years to strengthen alternatives to custody. We have also optimised prison capacity with 400 additional spaces compared with 2024, and will further increase capacity with new facilities in Inverness and Glasgow. As the member knows, I have also laid regulations for emergency early release.

However, I am clear that we need to look at further sustainable solutions, while continuing our track record of reducing crime and prioritising victims. That is why I established the sentencing and penal policy commission to guide further action. It will be for all parties to consider its recommendations.

The Cabinet secretary’s power to effect the early release of what will be more than 1,000 prisoners between now and April comes from the Bail and Release from Custody (Scotland) Act 2023. During its passage, the cabinet secretary told the Parliament that that power would be used only in

“an emergency situation that ... could not be predicted.”

She also stated that it was not to deal with

“changes in circumstances within custody”—[Official Report, 21 June 2023; c 159]

such as overcrowding. Does she therefore concede that the Parliament passed that legislation on the basis of false assurances, that overcrowding was entirely predictable, and that early release is now the Scottish National Party’s default response to its failure to develop a proper strategy to sort prison overcrowding?

No, I do not accept Liam Kerr’s claims. The 2023 act was passed to give ministers powers over early emergency release. The legislation is clear that such action needs to be proportionate and necessary to protect the health and wellbeing of those who live or work in our prisons. We are now at the stage where the increase in our prison population—not all of which has been predictable when it comes to the rapid rate of rise that we have had at certain intervals over the past two years, which the Scottish Prison Service chief executive spoke to earlier this week—leaves us no alternative, in the here and now, to emergency release.

I stress that emergency measures do not equate to the wholesale population management plan. That plan is to continue to invest in community justice services now and in the future. We have brought Upside on stream to support remand prisoners. We are utilising the estate better. I have doubled the use of home detention curfew. However, as I have always stated, our journey with any Intervention that I have made over the past years is far from over, and I anticipate that the findings of the sentencing and penal policy commission will help us all with the next questions with which we have to wrestle and engage.

Despite those attempts at justification, His Majesty’s chief inspector of prisons has said that early release does not

“address any of the root causes”

of the problems. Many have flagged that that approach simply puts the public at greater risk.

The Cabinet secretary indicated yesterday that she would not rule out the early release of long-term prisoners. Given the greater danger that that poses to the public and to victims, will she set out what enhanced victim notification she believes will be required in such a circumstance, what analysis is being done of the greater public risk of such a move and whether, on balance, she agrees that long-term prisoners must never be eligible for early release?

It is always clear to me that Liam Kerr is very articulate about what he is against but never articulates what he is for, to address the fact that Scotland, like England and Wales, is a complete outlier when it comes to our high prison population. We have a high prison population, which does not serve this country well. If we are prepared to follow the evidence, we know that community justice disposals, in many instances, work better than short-term prison sentences.

I know that Mr Kerr understands that the long-term prison population is increasing, and I know that he understands the reasons for that. That means that, collectively, we have to make different decisions in and around, for example, the release of short-term prisoners or, indeed, bolstering robust community justice alternatives. [ Interruption .]

I have heard Mr Kerr shout from the sidelines, “Build more prisons”. That is fine. We are building more prisons. We can, collectively, make the choice to build even more prisons, but that will come at a cost. [ Interruption .] If you want to continue to build prisons that cost millions and, in some instances, billions of pounds, that will come at the expense of health, education, community justice and everything that is required to prevent crime in the first place.

Let us not shout at one another from our seats, and let us always speak through the chair.

In relation to the sentencing and penal policy commission that the Cabinet secretary mentioned, does she agree that it is incumbent on all parties and the Parliament as a whole to give proper consideration to its report, when it is available? Does she also agree that we should have a grown-up, measured and informed discussion on any recommendations that the commission produces, so that we can properly consider how we can have a safe prison environment that focuses on rehabilitation and reducing reoffending while also ensuring that justice is served?

Notwithstanding the heckling that I experienced earlier or, indeed, the fact that I raised my voice earlier, it behoves us all to raise our game and raise the debate. It is imperative that we consider, debate and engage with, for example, the findings that come from the commission.

I am heartened that, outside the chamber, the discussions that I have had with Opposition spokespersons have always been on reasoned terms. We have had a constructive dialogue today—outwith the chamber—regarding the safety and rehabilitative purpose of prison, as well as what is required to reduce reoffending and protect victims.

It is imperative that we all focus on solutions. That is what I am focused on, and it will, of course, be better for our justice system as a whole if we can all reach a consensus on what would be better.

We all have the responsibility to address the fact that Scotland, along with countries elsewhere in these islands, is—as I said—a complete outlier in comparison with other European countries in relation to our prison population.

His Majesty’s Inspectorate of Prisons for Scotland has been warning for years that releasing prisoners from their sentence early is not addressing the root causes of overcrowding.

We know that one of the underlying issues is the increase in the number of long-term sentences; the number of prisoners serving a sentence of four years or more has increased by 600 over the past two years. What is the Government’s analysis of that trend? Is it that the courts are increasing sentencing for the same crimes, or is it an increase in more serious crime? The Government must give an answer to that question. If the Cabinet secretary cannot do so, I do not see how the Government can claim that it is serious about planning its way out of this crisis.

I will give one example in response to Ms McNeill’s question in relation to recorded crime versus convictions.

We know that, over the lifetime of this Government, the number of recorded crimes of violence has reduced, but we also all know that convictions for violence have increased. The level of recorded crime can go down, but convictions for violence can be increasing. That is due to the different investigative roles that the police undertake, and the success of our prosecutors and our courts. We are seeing more convictions for violence, sexual offences and historical sexual offences, but we also know that the average length of sentence across all cohorts of prisoners is going up. In fact, the average sentence has increased by nearly a third, and so we are also getting more long-term prisoners who are spending longer in the system.

That is why I spoke earlier about one example—it is not the complete solution—which is to consider different options in relation to short-term prisoners. I support the calls by the Prison Governors Association, the Scottish Prison Service and the inspectorate that immediate action is required. That means emergency early release, with those very stringent safeguards for public protection.