Fiscal Position

Portfolio Question Time – in the Scottish Parliament at on 25 September 2024.

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Photo of Stuart McMillan Stuart McMillan Scottish National Party

To ask the Scottish Government what analysis it has undertaken of what Scotland’s fiscal position would be today if a yes vote had been returned in the independence referendum of 18 September 2014. (S6O-03758)

Photo of Shona Robison Shona Robison Scottish National Party

As an independent country, Scotland would make its own decisions, including on matters such as European Union membership. Modelling suggests that, as a result of Brexit, compared with being in the EU, the United Kingdom economy was 2.5 per cent smaller in 2023, which represented a cut in Scottish public revenues of around £2.3 billion.

Independence would give Scotland full control of the economic levers that, as outlined in the “Building a New Scotland” economic prospectus, are needed to bring about lower energy prices, investment of up to £20 billion in major infrastructure and strengthened workplace rights, all of which would boost our economic future and allow Scotland to escape the UK’s economic model, which concentrates wealth in London and the south-east of England, while producing inequality, low investment and low productivity.

Photo of Stuart McMillan Stuart McMillan Scottish National Party

Since 2014, Scotland has suffered under four failed Tory premierships, and we have been taken out of the EU against our will, with Brexit wreaking havoc on our economy. As we heard earlier, we have witnessed high inflation, a disastrous economic experiment from Liz Truss and a cost of living crisis that was made worse by a Westminster Government that was intent on protecting itself and its friends instead of the Majority of the population.

Does the Cabinet secretary agree that independence is the only way that we can ensure that we get cheaper energy, bearing in mind the comments of Greg Jackson, the chief executive officer of Octopus Energy, who said that

“Scotland would have the cheapest electricity in Europe”

if the UK implemented regional pricing and market reform?

Photo of Shona Robison Shona Robison Scottish National Party

As a country, we are blessed with extraordinary natural and energy resources, and we have a world-leading renewable energy industry. An independent Scotland would design the electricity market in line with Scotland’s interests. That would allow, for example, the link between the price of electricity and the price of gas, which is a key factor in driving high prices for Scottish households, businesses and industry, to be broken. With full powers, we would seek to pass the lower cost of renewables on to customers, and the price of electricity would more accurately reflect our abundant low-cost renewable resources.

Meanwhile, we will continue to push the UK Government to ensure that the electricity market reforms support Scotland’s net zero ambitions, as well as our aim of tackling Fuel Poverty.

Photo of Murdo Fraser Murdo Fraser Conservative

The Scottish Government’s own “Government Expenditure and Revenue Scotland”—GERS—figures show that Scotland would have a nominal deficit of £22.7 billion, which is 10.4 per cent of gross domestic product. That is a truly unsustainable number, and it is more than double the rate of the UK as a whole.

Instead of giving us fantasy economics, can the finance secretary tell us what tax increases would be necessary to fill that gap?

Photo of Shona Robison Shona Robison Scottish National Party

Of course, the GERS figures, which represent a notional fiscal deficit, represent Scotland’s fiscal position under the current constitutional arrangements. Secondly, 90 per cent of the GERS fiscal deficit is due to UK Government choices. Thirdly, equating GERS with Scottish Government finances is just plain wrong, given that this Government has balanced the budget every year for 17 years and will continue to do so.

Question Time

Question Time is an opportunity for MPs and Members of the House of Lords to ask Government Ministers questions. These questions are asked in the Chamber itself and are known as Oral Questions. Members may also put down Written Questions. In the House of Commons, Question Time takes place for an hour on Mondays, Tuesdays, Wednesdays and Thursdays after Prayers. The different Government Departments answer questions according to a rota and the questions asked must relate to the responsibilities of the Government Department concerned. In the House of Lords up to four questions may be asked of the Government at the beginning of each day's business. They are known as 'starred questions' because they are marked with a star on the Order Paper. Questions may also be asked at the end of each day's business and these may include a short debate. They are known as 'unstarred questions' and are less frequent. Questions in both Houses must be written down in advance and put on the agenda and both Houses have methods for selecting the questions that will be asked. Further information can be obtained from factsheet P1 at the UK Parliament site.

cabinet

The cabinet is the group of twenty or so (and no more than 22) senior government ministers who are responsible for running the departments of state and deciding government policy.

It is chaired by the prime minister.

The cabinet is bound by collective responsibility, which means that all its members must abide by and defend the decisions it takes, despite any private doubts that they might have.

Cabinet ministers are appointed by the prime minister and chosen from MPs or peers of the governing party.

However, during periods of national emergency, or when no single party gains a large enough majority to govern alone, coalition governments have been formed with cabinets containing members from more than one political party.

War cabinets have sometimes been formed with a much smaller membership than the full cabinet.

From time to time the prime minister will reorganise the cabinet in order to bring in new members, or to move existing members around. This reorganisation is known as a cabinet re-shuffle.

The cabinet normally meets once a week in the cabinet room at Downing Street.

majority

The term "majority" is used in two ways in Parliament. Firstly a Government cannot operate effectively unless it can command a majority in the House of Commons - a majority means winning more than 50% of the votes in a division. Should a Government fail to hold the confidence of the House, it has to hold a General Election. Secondly the term can also be used in an election, where it refers to the margin which the candidate with the most votes has over the candidate coming second. To win a seat a candidate need only have a majority of 1.

Tory

The political party system in the English-speaking world evolved in the 17th century, during the fight over the ascension of James the Second to the Throne. James was a Catholic and a Stuart. Those who argued for Parliamentary supremacy were called Whigs, after a Scottish word whiggamore, meaning "horse-driver," applied to Protestant rebels. It was meant as an insult.

They were opposed by Tories, from the Irish word toraidhe (literally, "pursuer," but commonly applied to highwaymen and cow thieves). It was used — obviously derisively — to refer to those who supported the Crown.

By the mid 1700s, the words Tory and Whig were commonly used to describe two political groupings. Tories supported the Church of England, the Crown, and the country gentry, while Whigs supported the rights of religious dissent and the rising industrial bourgeoisie. In the 19th century, Whigs became Liberals; Tories became Conservatives.

fuel poverty

A household is said to be in fuel poverty when its members cannot afford to keep adequately warm at reasonable cost, given their income.