To ask the Scottish Government, in light of research by the Institute for Fiscal Studies indicating that forecast United Kingdom Government tax and spending plans would be funded by reductions in public investment, what assessment it has made of the potential impact that any changes to Scotland’s block grant resulting from this would have on Scotland’s public finances. (S6O-03619)

As the Institute for Fiscal Studies has highlighted, whoever wins the election, unprotected budgets face cuts of up to £20 billion by 2028-29. We do not know what that means for our budget, as the IFS has pointed out that there is absolutely zero clarity from either the Conservatives or Labour about where those cuts might fall. However, decisions by the UK Government have already cost Scotland up to £1.6 billion in potential consequentials, and it is clear that any future UK Government will deliver more of the same for Scotland.

I am deeply concerned about the scale of the cuts that we face under the next UK Government. If a more realistic position is not taken by the leading Westminster parties, will the Cabinet secretary call on her next UK counterpart to seriously consider the merits of Scotland’s more progressive system of income tax, which could, if applied across the rest of the UK, provide more than £15 billion in additional tax take for vital public services?

We have repeatedly called on the UK Government to use the powers at its disposal to provide the funding that is needed to invest in our vital public services. Our own decisions on income tax since devolution will result in an additional £1.5 billion being raised in 2024-25 compared with what would have been raised if we had matched current policy in the rest of the UK. Ultimately, our position is that far greater powers over taxation should be devolved so that we can design a tax system that works for Scotland and allows us to raise the revenue that is needed to invest in vital public services.

Could the Cabinet secretary outline what the IFS says about the gap in the Scottish National Party’s fiscal projections in its manifesto, which was launched yesterday, and how it intends to fill the £2 billion black hole in the Scottish Government’s financial plans that the Scottish Fiscal Commission has outlined?

Labour is on very dodgy ground indeed, given that it will not clarify whether it will continue with an austerity budget if it wins the election, which will mean that cuts of up to £20 billion will ensue by 2028-29. On top of that, the leader of the Scottish Labour Party has said that Labour will reverse the decisions that we have taken using our tax-raising powers in Scotland, which have raised £1.5 billion. If that reversal happens, we will have not only austerity cuts from Westminster but a double whammy of £1.5 billion less funding for vital public services. The public need to know about those Labour plans.