1. To ask the Scottish Government what discussions the finance secretary has had with ministerial colleagues regarding the impact of its current income tax policy, in light of reports that higher taxes could deter experienced professionals from moving to Scotland. (S6O-03158)

Matters relating to all Government policy are regularly discussed between and considered by members of the Scottish Government’s Cabinet. That includes discussions regarding the 2024-25 Scottish budget.

It is important to remember that people base their decisions about where to live and work on a wide range of factors, not just the tax that they pay. Those people who call Scotland home enjoy a range of support that is not available elsewhere in the United Kingdom. That helps to explain why net migration to Scotland from the rest of the UK has been consistently positive since the Scottish income tax was introduced in 2017-18.

The Minister will be aware that the new tax rates will mean that the average doctor will now pay £5,000 more than their counterparts in the rest of the UK. Given that both the British Medical Association and the British Dental Association have said that the tax hikes undermine efforts to recruit experienced staff and that rural communities are at an even greater disadvantage, can the minister say how much those hikes will reduce output in the health service?

One thing that I would note is that, broadly, across the Scottish public sector, we see examples of better remuneration than we see elsewhere in the UK. Of course, we take into account a range of factors and considerations in relation to matters that pertain to income tax policy, and we regularly engage with partners and colleagues to understand what the implications might be. Had we followed the prescription outlined by the Conservatives on income tax policy, that would have left us with some £1.5 billion less than we currently have to support public services, and that would have been particularly harmful, including for the national health service.

The Deputy Presiding Officer:

There are a number of brief—I hope—supplementaries.

Can the Minister confirm that the net migration figures of working-age people from the rest of the UK are positive; that housing costs and council taxes are lower in Scotland; that there is free personal and nursing care and there are no dental or eye test charges, tuition fees or prescription charges; that the national health service and the quality of life are better here; and that the people are welcoming? In short, who would not want to move here?

That is the case, and it has been that way every single year since the Scottish income tax was introduced in 2017-18. It is hardly surprising that we have those net migration figures when the benefits to people living in Scotland are so comprehensive, as the member has set out.

I will leave it to others to explain how slashing taxes and running public services into the ground would make Scotland a better place to live in. Those would be the consequences if we implemented the tax cuts that the Tories want to see.

Has the Minister looked at the evidence with NHS consultants? Yesterday, Dr Alan Robertson, who is the chair of the BMA Scottish consultants committee, highlighted 436 gaps in the consultant workforce—the figure was up from last year—and he said that, with

“the new top rates of tax introduced in Scotland, the competitive disadvantage our consultants face is becoming increasingly clear.”

What evidence has the minister gathered about the impact of tax rates on consultant recruitment? That is important.

Willie Rennie has raised an important point about marginal rates. It is important that we continue to pay careful attention to that issue—I will not contest that. On a broader point, forecasting revenues and behaviour is something that the Scottish Fiscal Commission does.

I go back to the key point. Not using our income tax powers in the progressive way that we are would mean less funding for public services, including the NHS.

My colleague Kenneth Gibson has already highlighted the important fact that significantly more working-age people move from England to Scotland every year than move in the opposite direction. As the Minister has highlighted, they clearly value the additional public services that they receive here.

I understand that His Majesty’s Revenue and Customs is collecting longitudinal data on the movement of tax per location between Scotland and the rest of the UK, and vice versa. Is the minister aware of when that data will be available and whether it will be separated by tax band?

I thank Mr McKee for his supplementary question. In answering it, I will supplement my answer to Mr Rennie’s question.

The Scottish Government has contributed to, and has continued to work with stakeholders to expand, the evidence base on our taxpayer behaviour. HMRC is currently finalising publication of the new longitudinal data set, which is intended to be published later this year. The new data set will show taxpayer migration across the UK by tax band. That will provide a valuable addition to the evidence base, which I am sure that Opposition parties and members across the chamber will welcome.