Covid-19 (Reflections and Next Steps)

Part of the debate – in the Scottish Parliament at on 23 March 2021.

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The First Minister:

I will make two points about the prospects of a third wave. First, we cannot guarantee that it will not happen here. It is an infectious virus, and one of the many things that we have learned over the past 12 months is that just wishing away the virus, or hoping or saying that we do not want a further wave or lockdown, does not bring any of those things into reality. We have to act in a way that minimises the chances of a third wave. That involves all of us doing so domestically by being cautious as we come out of lockdown and continuing to comply with the rules and restrictions for as long as is necessary.

The other point is that a third wave washing up on our shores is not inevitable. When I look back, one of my regrets about last year is that, because we suppressed the virus so hard and so successfully in Scotland, we perhaps opened up international travel too much and too quickly. The reasons for doing so were not wrong—the industry was in dire straits and people wanted to be able to travel again. However, in retrospect and on reflection, I do not think that that was the right thing to do, and I am determined that we will not do it again.

The importation of cases and new variants of the virus is one of the biggest risks that we face. We continue to have rules in place for managed quarantine of people who come directly into Scotland, but the rules are not as restrictive in the rest of the UK. I have tried hard to persuade the UK Government to emulate our policy, but the UK Government does not wish to do so—that is its decision and I cannot force the policy on it. However, it leaves us with a greater vulnerability to importation than I would like us to have.

As we approach the mid-May point, which is when the UK Government has said that it may allow international travel again—we have said that it will certainly not be allowed before that—we must be very cautious. I was heartened to hear Michael Gove say on a call last week that it is by no means certain that international travel will be reopened in mid-May. We will try to be very cautious on a four-nations basis, and we will take whatever decisions we can take here to protect the public as much as possible.