4. The Scottish Government estimates that 19,000 people in Scotland have the virus. Last Thursday, the test and protect system started. Does the First Minister know how many of those 19,000 infected people have been tested and how many of their contacts have been traced?

We do not yet have initial data from test and protect. I hope that, if all goes to plan, the initial data will be published this time next week; again, we have to make sure that it is quality assured and robust.

Those 19,000 people will of course be at different stages of infection; it is a moving picture and we will now produce every Thursday estimates of the R number and our understanding of the infection rate. The information that comes out of test and protect will be very important—not just the numbers tested but, as Willie Rennie rightly says, the numbers of contacts that have been identified and traced.

I will make two additional points for context. First, of course we have to ensure that test and protect is operating robustly and effectively and that it is engaging with everybody it requires to engage with, either through testing or tracing. However, over time, the test and protect numbers going up will not necessarily be a good thing, because it will be a sign that the virus is increasing again, and we do not want to see that.

Secondly, while everybody is complying with the physical distancing rules right now, as they should be doing, the number of close contacts that people have should be minimal. As we look at the numbers, hopefully next week, it is important that those contextual points are borne in mind.

We know that, since last Thursday, only 264 people have been tested and found to be positive. That is just 1 per cent of the number of people who are estimated to have the virus. Why are we missing 99 per cent of the people who have the virus?

Test and protect was the big idea for driving the virus out of the country, but we now discover that it will protect us from only 1 per cent of the virus. If that is the case, what is the value of the Scottish Government’s test and protect system? Is it capable of eradicating the virus?

The First Minister:

I believe that it is capable of playing a significant part in suppressing and, I hope, eradicating the virus. However, I and the Cabinet Secretary for Health and Sport have said all along—and it is a very important message that we all must convey to the population—that it will not do that on its own. We all have to play a part by complying with health advice, in particular the physical distancing guidelines.

Without going into too much detail—although I am happy to write to Willie Rennie to set out more detail if that would be helpful—the numbers that we publish daily on positive tests are numbers that come through NHS lab testing. Drive-through testing and the Lighthouse lab are a separate strand to that.

Willie Rennie says that the numbers are minimal. They will grow. We are signposting people to book tests through test and protect and to go there.

People should absolutely scrutinise and look at the details of test and protect. You can be assured that the health secretary and I will also be doing that very closely. However, let us all recognise and take seriously our responsibility to get the message across to people. We cannot force people to come forward for testing; we have to encourage them to do so and explain why it is so important.

Let all of us take every opportunity to say to people, “If you have any of the symptoms of coronavirus—a fever, a cough, or a loss of or change in your sense of taste or smell—don’t delay and wait a day or two to see if you feel better. Go immediately to NHS Inform or phone NHS 24 and book a test.” If all of us get that message across, we will see test and protect play the part that it needs to play to ensure that we keep the virus suppressed.