5. To ask the Scottish Government how its proposed new climate change targets will take account of the Paris agreement’s goal of pursuing efforts to limit the temperature increase to 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels. (S5O-00493)

The Scottish Government’s forthcoming climate change bill will reflect the increased global ambition of the Paris agreement by setting new statutory greenhouse gas emission reduction targets, which will include a more testing 2020 target. The Scottish Government’s approach to climate change targets is based on the best available evidence, and we have commissioned independent advice from the United Kingdom Committee on Climate Change on the appropriate levels, forms and mechanisms for targets in the bill. The committee has issued a call for evidence in relation to its advice, which will remain open until 1 February 2017.

Even before the Paris agreement raised the level of global ambition on limiting the temperature increase, it was clear that the bulk of the world’s fossil fuels are unburnable. We have far greater existing reserves of fossil fuels than we can afford to burn, even if we were to restrain warming to 2°C.

Given the increased ambition, the proportion of burnable fossil fuels will reduce even further. Is there not a strong case for the climate change legislation to not only set the right emissions reduction targets but place clear limits on the extraction of fossil fuels? Extraction will have to come to an end if we are to have the remotest chance of achieving the 1.5°C goal.

As I indicated, we are awaiting advice from the Committee on Climate Change for the climate change bill, which has not yet been introduced in Parliament and is still the subject of considerable discussion. I hear what Patrick Harvie says and I will ensure that his views are reflected in any discussions that we have.

I should add that Scotland is a member of the under 2 MOU—memorandum of understanding—coalition, which covers more than a billion people around the world in states and regions. As a signatory to the MOU, we recognise that global ambition must be increased to meet the Paris agreement goals.

For additional advice, I will quote the First Minister, who said at the Arctic Circle Assembly:

“it is essential that the world meets the overall target we set ourselves in Paris, of limiting global temperature increases to well below 2 degrees Celsius, and making serious efforts to keep them below 1.5 degrees.”

I hope that Patrick Harvie is happy with that statement of intent.

The Paris agreement will require complex and detailed planning to meet the 2020 and 2050 targets. How important is the TIMES accounting model as a tool in achieving the future climate change targets?

For those who are not familiar with the TIMES model, I say that it is a relatively recent innovation that the Scottish Government is using that has made working out the proposals that need to be in the climate change plan rather more straightforward this time around than it was the last time that we had to do that. The model allows us to feed in scenarios and get a clear indication of what the result would be. That will be a vital tool as we move forward with the climate change plan, which still has to be laid before Parliament, and when we come to setting much tougher targets for ourselves in the proposed climate change bill. The TIMES model will give us clarity on what will be achieved when we take certain actions.

I declare that I am the parliamentary liaison officer to the Cabinet secretary.

Does the cabinet secretary agree that Scotland is a world leader on tackling climate change, given our ambitious targets and our success in meeting our 2020 targets six years early? Does she agree that it is important that we continue to show the international community that significant emissions reductions are deliverable?

When one leaves Scotland to have a conversation about climate change, it is interesting to find the extent to which people recognise and are cognisant of the advances that have been made here. Even the environmental non-governmental organisations that delight in tweaking our tails in Scotland will nevertheless go out of Scotland and boast quite widely of the successes that have been achieved. Therefore, I agree with that.

It is worth saying that we are recognised outside Scotland for the work that we have done. It is important that we do not always simply look inside and that we consider that validation is coming from elsewhere. At the climate change talks in Morocco, I met Patricia Espinosa, the head of the United Nations climate body, and she called Scotland meeting its 2020 targets six years early a “great achievement”. The Climate Group is extremely interested in what we have done and the great advances that we have made, and it hopes to use our example to encourage other states and regions to achieve the same. It is right that we understand that we have international validation for what we do and that it is recognised as world leading.