2. What assessment has the Cabinet Secretary made of the reliability of the Office for National Statistics labour force survey data in relation to Wales? OQ61009

The Welsh Government has raised concerns about the quality of the survey in terms of data for Wales for some time. The ONS has introduced some improvements over recent months, but data should be used alongside the trends in other measures to gain a clearer picture of the Welsh labour market.

I thank the Cabinet Secretary. The problems with the data have continued for months now, and we've just heard from the ONS that the new system that they are going to put in place won't be there until next September. And that creates major problems for the Government in terms of trying to plan for policies to help the economy here in Wales in the future.

Does the Cabinet Secretary not agree that behind these difficulties lies the impact of austerity on the ONS itself, an organisation of very high repute, which plays a very important part in the public service infrastructure of south-east Wales, but which has been subject to repeated cuts by the UK Government? Isn't this just yet another example of a UK Government that is penny-wise but pound-foolish in leaving the whole economy without the data it needs to make sensible decisions for the future?

May I just agree with what the Member said at the beginning of his question? At this current time, we must ensure, as a Government, as all governments are duty-bound to do, that we understand exactly what the impact of all the things we seek to do is, so that the little public money we have is used in the most effective and efficient way possible and that we understand that.

I think that the Member is absolutely right to say that, if you look at the situation that the ONS finds itself in over recent years, for each of the last two years, its cash funding has fallen, and it looks to a further reduction, in nominal terms, in its budget between the last financial year and the one that we are in now. So, these are challenging circumstances, I think, in which the ONS has to work, and we look to it to meet the needs of Wales, so that it can support the work that we do as a Government.

As the Member says, it has been undertaking a programme of transformation. We do look forward to the renewed data sets that will become available, because they are so essential. Welsh Government officials are working very closely and collaboratively with the ONS, and Members will have seen what the chief statistician has had to say about the quality of the data recently. But I think it goes without saying that an ONS that was properly funded and had access to the kinds of resources that we would wish it to see would be able to better discharge the responsibilities that I know the chief statistician is keen that they should be able to as well.

I, like the Member for Cardiff West, understand how reliable statistical data is and how vital it is for policy making. The former Minister for Economy, now First Minister, outlined in 2021, I believe, that the Welsh Government had been involved in improving ONS data for Wales. So, we're now almost three years on from that expected work, and it appears that there are still great concerns about the data, and you've alluded to some of the work, Cabinet Secretary, that's going on. But given the earlier answer, can you share what further progress has been made over the last three years by the Welsh Government to ensure that there is reliable ONS data for Wales?

Well, Welsh Government officials work with the ONS, but this is a challenge that is, as the former First Minister way saying, the product of resource pressures on the ONS, which I'm sure all of us would have an incredible amount of sympathy with. But we need those data to be current and reliable, and I do welcome the steps that the ONS has taken and has been able to take. So, in the last six months, it's returned to face-to-face interviewing. It's been able to increase its re-contact rates. One of the issues at the heart of this is the contact rate and the ability to secure engagement with it. It's reintroduced a boost to the LFS sample from the start of this year, and it's reinstated the majority of its statistics, but it does recognise that there are still ongoing challenges, and its advice is now that we should be cautious in interpreting short-term changes in the data, especially when we look at more detailed breakdowns, which would apply to a nation the size of Wales. That becomes even less reliable than the UK-wide picture, for reasons which we will understand.

So, their recommendation is that we continue to make use of the full range—the broader range—of labour market data sources when we're forming a judgment on the UK labour market. And the Member may know that if you look at His Majesty's Revenue and Customs data, the job starts, and a range of other data, the trends, actually, in Wales, more closely mirror those in the UK than would seem to be the case based on the last labour force survey data.