Part of the debate – in the Senedd at 2:46 pm on 30 January 2024.
Llywydd, I should also thank those senior members of all the parties represented in this Senedd for their help in identifying those commissioners who contributed the political perspectives that shape the constitutional debate of our nation. It is a remarkable tribute to the skills of the co-chairs that, faced with a commission full of individuals of robust and strongly held views, the final report is, to quote Dr Williams and Professor McAllister, the product of
'reasoned, inclusive debate based on data and evidence', leading to unanimous conclusions. That a cross-party commission should come to so many shared conclusions lends a real extra weight and significance to the final report, and I thank once again all those who helped to make that happen.
Now, Llywydd, the genesis of the commission is to be found in Welsh Labour’s manifesto of 2021, when we promised that we would
'Work for a new and successful United Kingdom, based on a far-reaching federalism. We want to foster a national, civic conversation in Wales about our future. We will establish an independent, standing commission to consider the constitutional future of Wales.'
That is what we said in our manifesto. The final remit of that commission was set out in the programme for government and refined once again in the co-operation agreement between this Welsh Labour Government and Plaid Cymru.
The circumstances in which the notion of a commission was formed reflected the many stresses and strains that have been felt in the constitutional arrangements of the United Kingdom. The Brexit vote referendum in both Scotland and Northern Ireland had returned majorities in favour of remaining in the European Union, while Wales and England voted to leave. The Scottish National Party had won 56 of the 59 parliamentary seats in the 2015 general election, by which time it had already been in government in Holyrood for nearly a decade. In December 2019, the Conservative Party was able to form the first clear majority Government at Westminster since 1992, and the first since devolution. The Prime Minister of the time, Boris Johnson, told his supporters that he regarded devolution as the greatest mistake of the New Labour Government and proceeded to deal with legislatures in Belfast, Cardiff and Edinburgh on that basis. The era of muscular unionism, as it was called in Downing Street, added new tensions and further widened fissures in an already fragile United Kingdom.
Here in Wales, in that 2021 Senedd election, it was clear that voters would have the opportunity, if they so chose, to support candidates dedicated to reversing devolution altogether—the Abolish the Welsh Assembly Party—and candidates dedicated to leaving the United Kingdom.
Now, Llywydd, there are those who believe that the constitutional turbulence of that period has come to an end, that the undoubted travails of the Scottish National Party mean that conventional unionism has triumphed and that rule from London has been reasserted. That, I believe, is a conclusion that is both foolish and dangerous. The constitutional challenges facing the United Kingdom, especially for those of us who believe in the continuation of the United Kingdom, are as real today as when the commission was established. By this time next year, there may be a Sinn Féin first minister in Northern Ireland—and I welcome the developments overnight to restore an Executive in Northern Ireland—and there may be a Sinn Féin government in the Irish Republic. Anybody who thinks the constitutional turbulence is over is simply indulging in wishful thinking.
The commission, by contrast, was established to provide thinking of a very different calibre, and it has done just that. The interim report decisively set out the 10 greatest challenges facing devolution: the instability of the devolution settlement, the fragility of inter-governmental relations, problems with the system of financing devolved nations, the absence of leadership on the union, and so on. Now the final report sets out some answers to these dilemmas. The commission advances a set of measures that can entrench and enhance the current settlement, making it less vulnerable to attacks from a hostile administration in Westminster. And, as well as deepening the roots of devolution in that way, the report explores the case for widening the responsibilities of this Senedd, and does so in six different fields: broadcasting, employment, energy, justice, transport and welfare. As a background to these specific proposals, the commission assesses the three broad constitutional futures available to those who share a progressive approach to strengthening Welsh democracy: an enhanced and protected version of the current settlement, a federal future for the United Kingdom, and an independent Wales.
Now, Llywydd, it was never the intention that the commission should come to a conclusion that instructed Welsh citizens on the model to be preferred from those it explored. Rather, the report offers each of us a serious analysis of the pros and cons of each possibility, allowing us to come to a better informed, evidence-rich conclusion of our own, both as individuals and as political parties. And, Llywydd, all of this is summed up in 10 recommendations. How often have we seen in this Senedd reports bristling with recommendations guaranteed to sink under their own weight? By focusing on a small number of key proposals, the commission has, I believe, gone a long way to ensuring that its work will go on being powerfully influential in the debates and the discussions that will flow from it.
One final point, Llywydd, if I may: in my first conversation with Dr Williams, asking if he would be prepared to consider help leading the commission, he told me that he would be willing to do so, but only if the work of the commission could be conducted in a way that involved as many as possible of those people who make Wales the country it is today. The result is that the authority of the report comes not simply from the intellectual rigour of its evidence and conclusions, but from the thousands of our fellow citizens who have been part of its conversation. Indeed, the very first of the final 10 recommendations urges both the Welsh Government and the Senedd to strengthen our own capacity for democratic innovation and community engagement in the work that we do.