The following amendments have been selected: amendment 1 in the name of Lesley Griffiths, and amendments 2 and 3 in the name of Darren Millar. If amendment 1 is agreed, amendments 2 and 3 will be deselected.

Item 7 this afternoon is the Plaid Cymru debate on apprenticeships. I call on Luke Fletcher to move the motion. 

Motion NDM8451 Luke Fletcher

To propose that this Senedd:

1. Notes:

a) that approximately 80 per cent of small firms in Wales struggled to recruit in the past 12 months due to skills shortages;

b) the skills gap across economic sectors in Wales outlined in recent Employer Skills Surveys; and

c) the Welsh Government’s target to create 125,000 all-age apprenticeships by the end of the current Senedd term. 

2. Regrets:

a) that over halfway through the current Senedd term, less than a third of the Welsh Government’s target has been achieved;

b) the estimated 24.5 per cent reduction in funding for the Welsh Government’s apprenticeship programme which will result in 10,000 fewer apprenticeship starts in 2024-25; and

c) that as a result of funding reductions, the Welsh Government is failing its economic mission to back young people to achieve ambitious futures in Wales.

3. Calls on the Welsh Government to:

a) establish a sustainable long-term funding model for apprenticeships;

b) rule out the introduction of tuition fees for degree apprenticeships in Wales; and

c) commission an independent evaluation of the feasibility of meeting its target for all-age apprenticeships by 2026.

Motion moved.

Diolch, Dirprwy Lywydd. We table this debate not just because of our own concerns, but also the concerns that have been shared with us by the further education sector, students as well as the wider business sector, concerns that Members can see from the open letter signed by 60 employers. Apprenticeships are very obviously not just an education issue; they're an economic one as well.

Apprenticeships are consistently highlighted by all of us in this Chamber as a priority. No matter the speaker—Plaid, Tory, Labour, Lib Dem—all of us can agree on the need to build on what we already have. That's why I think these cuts are particularly jarring, more so because the economy Minister himself identified it as a priority within his economy strategy—priority 2, a platform for young people, fair work, skills and success. We knew the strategy was thin on the ground in terms of detail, but I don't think anyone was expecting just a week later the biggest cut to apprenticeships since the beginning of devolution, completely undermining the economy Minister's own strategy.

This also happened on the back of the Government briefing the FE sector to expect a 3 per cent cut, 10,000 fewer apprenticeship starts, a 50 per cent reduction in new starts. That's potentially what we are facing. Cardiff and Vale College group highlighted very clearly to us the impact of the proposed cuts, estimating that the total economic loss of the proposed cuts in the worst case scenario could be up to a potential lifetime loss of £406.8 million. In its more conservative estimate, it could be a potential lifetime cost of £296.5 million. 

Let's break that down a bit. The construction industry, a key net zero and reskilling sector, crucial as we move towards green industries, is expected to see one of the worst cuts after the health sector. Nearly 10 per cent of apprenticeship starts are in engineering, and another 12 per cent are in construction. Overall, 24.6 per cent of GVA loss will be in this sector. That's a potential lifetime loss of £99.9 million in the worst case scenario, or £73.1 million under a more conservative estimate. 

The professional scientific and technical activity sector, another critical sector for net zero, has the third largest loss, a potential lifetime cost of £69.6 million in the worst case, and a £50.7 million lifetime cost under a conservative estimate. This represents 17.1 per cent of all losses. No matter how you cut it, the current proposed cut will have potentially a devastating impact.

These cuts, of course, couldn't be proposed at a worse time, a time when we know that 80 per cent of small firms in Wales cite a skills shortage as a barrier to recruitment. That should be an indication to the Government that demand is only going to increase for starters. There’s been no reduction in demand for new apprenticeship starts, with Welsh Government data actually showing an increase in apprenticeship starts in the first half of 2022-23 compared to the same period a year earlier. ColegauCymru actually expect an increase in demand from employers in 2023-24, which, if it could be supported, reflects well on the outlook for the Welsh economy.

I’ll beat the Minister and Labour Members to it: what would be cut? Where’s the alternative budget? We know, of course, the effect of the loss of EU structural funds. We debated it yesterday afternoon. The sector recognises it. The apprenticeship levy needs assessing. We know that Wales currently loses out because of it. We’d love to see the books in their full detail, line by line, but we can’t. We aren’t given that level of detail, even though we’ve asked for it. As an opposition party, our role isn’t to do the job of Government for them, especially without the Government resources and access to information. Our role is definitely, though, to come here and to highlight decisions that the Government makes, and the impacts, to encourage the Government to go back and find another way. That is scrutiny.

We understand, of course, the difficulties and pressures on the Welsh Government’s budget, but we need to be retaining our young people, creating career opportunities and reskilling, providing future generations with these skills and careers, especially with an ageing population here in Wales, especially with the challenge of migration of young people, especially with the skills gap. We need the Government to think again.

Dirprwy Lywydd, I move this motion to the Senedd, and I look forward to all Members’ contributions.

I have selected the three amendments to the motion. If amendment 1 is agreed, amendments 2 and 3 will be deselected. I call on the Minister for Economy to formally move amendment 1, tabled in the name of Lesley Griffiths. 

Amendment 1—Lesley Griffiths

Delete all and replace with:

To propose that the Senedd:

1. Notes:

a) that small businesses across Wales access a range of Welsh Government-funded employment, skills and business support to meet recruitment challenges in a volatile labour market and low growth UK environment;

b) the skills gap that exists in economic sectors in Wales outlined in recent Employer Skills Surveys; and welcomes the Welsh Government’s emphasis on targeted support in those areas, including funding for personal learning accounts;

c) the Welsh Government’s target to create 125,000 all-age apprenticeships by the end of the current Senedd term and the impact cuts to the Welsh budget, the loss of European replacement funds and record inflation has on the business and public budgets required to deliver against estimates set prior to the multiple economic shocks which have emerged since 2021; and

d) that cuts to Wales’s budget, the loss of promised EU replacement funds and soaring inflation has undermined the Welsh Government’s economic mission and the implications this has for young people and their ability to achieve ambitious futures in Wales.

2. Welcomes:

a) that halfway through the current Senedd term, the Welsh Government has committed in excess of £400m in apprenticeships; and

b) the commitment to protecting the quality of apprenticeship delivery at a time of falling budgets and recognises the long term risks associated with reducing quality considerations in order to increase the number of apprenticeships delivered.

3. Notes the Welsh Government will:

a) continue to prioritise funding for apprenticeships against a backdrop of severe financial pressure;

b) support degree apprenticeships in Wales; and

c) work with the apprenticeship network to secure the best possible delivery outcomes.

Amendment 1 moved.

Formally.

I call on Paul Davies to move amendments 2 and 3, tabled in the name of Darren Millar. 

Amendment 2—Darren Millar

In point 3, insert new sub-point after sub-point (a) and renumber accordingly:

expand apprenticeships, especially to degree level, to tackle skill shortages in core sectors including healthcare, renewable energy and digital technology;

Amendment 3—Darren Millar

In point 3, insert as new sub-point after sub-point (a), and renumber accordingly:

allow for flexible entry points for degree apprenticeships, recognising an individual’s prior educational attainment;

Amendments 2 and 3 moved.

Diolch, Dirprwy Lywydd. I move the amendments tabled in the name of my colleague Darren Millar.

The Member for South Wales West has given a good overview of the current situation facing apprenticeship providers and the impact that the proposed cuts in the Welsh Government’s draft budget will have on the sector, and I echo a lot of the points that he has raised. As we all know, apprenticeships are a vital part of the education and skills agenda. They help build a skilled workforce and enhance the employability of learners. And they’re agents for social change, too—they offer the opportunity for people to upskill, reskill and develop work-based skills as they learn. And so the Welsh Government was right to establish a commitment to apprenticeships by setting a target to create 125,000 all-age apprenticeships by the end of the current Senedd term.

Over the years, there has been a lot of talk about the need for parity of esteem between academic and vocational education, so setting a priority to deliver apprenticeships sent a strong statement of support of them, and the valuable role they have in supporting the Welsh economy. And I know from my discussions with providers, businesses and learners in my own constituency just how transformative an apprenticeship can be. Businesses regularly highlight the positive impact that apprenticeships have on their workforce, and the impact on learners is transformational. For example, Sara Rees, who is an apprentice at Hywel Dda University Health Board, has had the opportunity to observe a surgical procedure and attend theatre, and then follow the patient’s progress first-hand, which has given her valuable insight and experience in the field. She believes that apprenticeships are an excellent opportunity, whether you are coming straight from school, a parent, or changing your career path, as it gives you security, experience and the support to reach your end goal. And she is right. We must not lose sight of the fact that apprenticeships are making a huge impact on lives like Sara’s right across Wales.

In November, the Welsh Government set out its renewed economic mission, and one of the four bullet points of that mission was an emphasis on supporting key sectors to grow and prioritising young people. And yet at the same time significant cuts are being proposed to the flagship apprenticeship programme, which we know will reduce opportunities for thousands of young people. The National Training Federation for Wales has made it clear that the cuts to the apprenticeship programme will have a huge impact on the Welsh Government’s young person’s guarantee, and the Welsh Government’s priority economic sectors. Indeed, they confirm that the number of apprenticeships in Wales will drop from 20,000 to 10,000 in 2024-25, which is a huge drop of 50 per cent. And as we’ve already heard, they joined FSB Wales, CBI Wales, the Chartered Institute of Personnel and Development, Make UK and ColegauCymru in writing an open letter to the First Minister stressing how the cuts to the apprenticeship programme will undermine the new economic mission and cut the talent pipeline for employers. I join these organisations, as well as providers, businesses and learners across Wales, in calling on the Welsh Government to rethink its proposed cut before it's too late.

The motion also calls on the Welsh Government to establish a sustainable, long-term funding model for apprenticeships, which I believe should come off the back of a review of the funding landscape for apprenticeships, and an honest, national conversation about how the Welsh Government plans to deliver apprenticeships in the future. The sector needs support and providers need to be able to plan and map out their delivery over the longer term, and so I hope the Welsh Government will commit to an independent review as called for in the motion.

Finally, I want to briefly touch on degree apprenticeships. My party's amendment seeks to add to the Plaid Cymru motion by adding a point to expand apprenticeships in core sectors and also ensure that there's more flexibility in accessing degree apprenticeships so that there can be a recognition of a student's prior learning. I believe the system needs to be much more open to recognising the value that prior learning has, and as a result there should be more flexibility in accessing degree apprenticeships. We should be opening doors and expanding access where possible.

In closing, Dirprwy Lywydd, I again echo many of the views already expressed about the decision to cut funding for apprenticeships and urge the Minister to rethink his decision. I understand that Government finances are tight and there is a pressure from all sectors for support right now. However, given the Welsh Government's recent renewed economic mission and the priority that has been given to providing skills and apprenticeships by this particular Welsh Government, the decision to cut funding for apprenticeships is completely out of kilter with the Welsh Government's own policy objectives. I remind Members that the budget process is far from over and there is time for changes to be made, so I urge the Welsh Government to listen to the sector, listen to businesses and listen to learners. I urge Members to support our amendments.

I mentioned in an intervention on this matter last week, I think it was, that I'd had meetings with Viv Buckley of Bridgend College. I also have had briefings and discussions with ColegauCymru in the run-up to this. I think all of us in this Senedd Chamber recognise, and have spoken about already in the first few contributions, the importance of good apprenticeships, particularly in communities like my own, where many young people, male and female now increasingly, will go on to see apprenticeships as the route to good careers, long careers in well-paid jobs. That's the route they increasingly choose, often in concert with support being given by local employers, training providers and also Bridgend College. 

I note the letter that every Member of the Senedd has had from the NTFW and ColegauCymru in advance of today's debate, in which they recognise the investment that has gone in to apprenticeships in Wales. Indeed, they recognise the success of that, particularly the investment—I think it's £400 million plus that the Welsh Government has invested in the first few years of this Senedd term—and the ambitions that we have for it. But in so doing, I have to say they also—as colleagues have already said—urge the Welsh Government to reconsider and look for that transition funding. Because what they note, of course, Minister, is that we've lost that European funding that underpinned all of this, and that is the hard reality. I cannot stand here honestly with integrity as a Member of this Senedd and simply say to the Minister, faced with all the cuts that we currently have across every budget area, 'Just dig deeper, Minister, just find the additional money that was promised that we would have when the European money disappeared and we would have all this money to Wales.' Where is it? The answer is it isn't there, it hasn't been given to us.

But we have additional complications as well that we do need to be honest and frank about. It's not only the loss of the European funding, it's also the loss of the ability to control our own apprenticeships here in Wales. The apprenticeship levy is an absolute travesty. Because we know that we can deliver these apprenticeships well in Wales, we have a track record of doing it, but we've been curtailed by a desire of the UK Government to say, 'No, we have control of that'.

All of these things play into, and are in addition to, the cost inflation that we've seen and the budgetary pressures on the Welsh Government and the overall budget statement, which doesn't come just from this year, but year after year after year, to really, really—. We often call them difficult decisions, but they're impossible decisions. Now, I actually get where the NTFW an ColegauCymru are coming from on this. They are effectively putting their case, and I want the Minister to respond to a couple of the scenarios that they paint in a moment, and they're doing that, but I think it's incumbent, then, upon us, because we are not ColegauCymru and we are not NTFW—we speak on behalf of those youngsters who want to get into apprenticeships, and actually the people of all ages who want to get into apprenticeships—to say, 'How do we do this when faced with this?' But we are either of parties that are in government or of parties that aspire to be, one day, in government, in which case, looking at these budgets as they go through every committee in this Senedd at the moment, somebody is going to have to come up with something remarkable as these go through committees, and somebody is going to have to give solutions to the Minister, not to do with an independent review, an independent commission and so on—we know what the problems are; we absolutely know what the problems are—but, actually, to come up with some ideas and some solutions that say, 'Well, if we're going to fund them at the same level that we have done for the first three years, then something else is going to have to give.' We have to be honest about that—genuinely honest about it—and I look forward to those who are sitting on the relevant committees coming up with that.

But let me just say in brief, Minister, that some of the scenarios painted by ColegauCymru suggest that because of looking forward in the year ahead—the year ahead immediately—because they'll have to actually show preference to people who are already in apprenticeship routes, that could well mean a significant drop-off, a huge drop-off, in new apprenticeships for next year. What would your response be to that? The other thing is: because of the focus of Welsh Government on construction, engineering, health and social care, then other areas might well see a drop-off as well, because the money can only be spread so far, of course. So, I'd welcome that, but other responses to—he'll have seen the briefing from ColegauCymru as well, but responses to their genuine concerns and what this could mean for the year ahead.

But let's be quite frank, and I'm aware that I've run out of time, this is on the track record of big investment over the first two or three years of this Government—over £400 million. But the scale of the challenge we have is not an apprenticeship-only challenge. Some of us went outside yesterday and we met with junior doctors. We are meeting, day by day, with homelessness charities; we are meeting, day by day, with everybody who is saying, quite rightly, that theirs is a priority area—so is apprenticeships. I have to say that the hard reality of this is that we need the money given to us to actually run these things, and then we will do it. At the moment, I would ask for the assurance from the Minister that he will work intensely and constructively with all of the training providers and the colleges in Wales to get us through the 12 months ahead in good shape, meaning that we can get back, in future, with a Government at a UK level that decides it's worth investing in these matters and across our budgets, supplementing our budget, so we can get back on a level kilter again.

The Llywydd took the Chair.

I thank Huw for the intervention and we share the urgency, absolutely, which is why we want this debate to be heard this afternoon. But it is difficult for us, as opposition parties, despite us asking, time and time again, to come up with alternative budget cuts without us seeing the line-for-line detail that we need. When we have that, we can engage in a proper debate about priorities, but this, for us, is certainly a priority, as I'm sure you share.

My contribution this afternoon is one that intends to draw attention to the impact that these cuts are going to have on the health sector and its workforce, and particularly on our rural communities. The largest number of apprentices starting their courses in Wales every year are associated with the health and care services sector; this includes about 43 per cent of all of the apprenticeships that are offered.

The cuts in the budget could lead to a reduction of around 10,000 apprenticeships starting next year—a reduction of around 50 per cent—and the effects of this, as I've just mentioned, will be felt especially in the health and care sector. Apprenticeships in the health and care sector provide specialist training for essential roles in social care, home care, clinical healthcare and many other areas. In a sector that is already crying out for support in the face of years of cuts, cuts to apprenticeship funding is going to have a detrimental impact on workforce planning, recruitment and training for the future.

Healthcare workers' salaries are lower in Wales than in any other part of these islands, and we know that our healthcare workers are leaving to work and train where there is better pay, better working conditions and access to better training opportunities. And this at a time, for example, in August 2023, when the Welsh NHS was already facing 4,300 staff vacancies. Now, what is the Welsh Government's plan to rectify this? And what does the future of the NHS Wales workforce look like under this Government?

Well, the looming crisis in apprenticeships in health and social care highlights a wider issue: that this Government is not creating enough opportunities for our young people to stay in their communities or to contribute to their local economies. This is all of particular concern in the kinds of rural and coastal communities that I represent in Mid and West Wales. The impact of this drastic cut in apprenticeships on our rural communities will be particularly significant—another blow to rural households and businesses already disproportionately squeezed by the current cost-of-living crisis. Fifty per cent of total apprenticeship starts, annually, are outside the M4 corridor. Here, apprenticeships provide a vital means of accessing work and training where other opportunities to do so are scarce. It's a way into employment for those who often find it difficult through the traditional education-based route.

So, the proposed cuts to the apprenticeship programme budget will also disproportionately impact the kinds of smaller firms that are the backbone of our rural economy. Statistics from the Federation of Small Businesses today show that small and medium-sized enterprises are less likely to host apprenticeships in comparison with medium-sized companies, and as we all know, SMEs make up the vast majority of businesses in rural Wales. So, without the right kinds of Government support, these firms will find it far more difficult to offer on-the-job training. This in turn will limit young people's ability to find training and employment opportunities and thereby stay in and contribute to their local communities.

To close, therefore, could I ask whether the Government has conducted any sort of assessment to determine the effect that these cuts will have on rural areas? If not, will the Minister commit today to doing that work?

Finally, what's happening with apprenticeships shows, once again, that the Government is not aware enough of the genuine challenges facing our rural communities. I call on him this afternoon to develop a strategy to tackle this issue.

I thank Plaid for tabling this important debate today. It's really important that we discuss this, as our apprenticeship sector is now in a perilous state. For a Government that agrees with the Conservatives that offering apprenticeships is not only important but is essential, as not everyone is academic, as has already been mentioned today—it is also important for our economy and our future economy in Wales.

Improving skills is meant to be at the heart of the Welsh Government economic strategy, yet, as a result of the funding cut, the sector is forecasting 10,000 fewer apprenticeship starts next year. To put this into context, the latest available figures show that there were around 20,000 new apprenticeship starts in 2021—that's a 50 per cent reduction in new starters. The proposed cuts to the apprenticeship budget in the 2024-25 draft budget are equivalent to 25 per cent in cuts—equivalent to £35 million. These brutal cuts are on top of the £17.5 million already cut from apprenticeships by this Labour Government. The sector have warned that the fall in apprenticeships will disproportionately impact young people and women, and in 2021-22, over half of apprentices were female. Whether it be normal apprenticeships or degree apprenticeships, we are so far behind our neighbours in England and Scotland that it's almost, quite frankly, embarrassing. This is a real failure by this inadequate Government, and from a Minister that wishes to become First Minister of our country. It's extremely worrying, as the Member for Mid and West Wales, Cefin Campbell, has just said, that these Labour cuts will hit the health and social care sector the hardest—health and public service apprenticeships make up nearly 45 per cent of all apprenticeships—at a time when we're crying out for more workforce, Minister, in the NHS, particularly in social care. This Labour Government should be putting investment into ensuring we're plugging these gaps so we can unblock the system, get people out of their hospital beds quicker and back into the community. Not doing so will only exacerbate the current problems we are facing.

When you couple this with the further education cuts, it paints a bleak picture for the next generation of workers. We have already seen the Welsh Government abandon its manifesto pledge of creating 125,000 new apprenticeships by the end of the Senedd term. To reach the new, smaller target there would need to be 84,760 new apprenticeships by 2026. This would mean there need to be 42,308 new apprenticeships a year, almost double what has been reached in February 2022 and April 2023. On this downward trajectory, this is clearly just not going to happen. We are about to see numbers dramatically dropping, if you're honest, Minister, aren't we?

The national federation of Wales warns that the cuts threaten hundreds of jobs in the work-based learning sector, and this is just truly worrying stuff. On the one hand, Welsh Labour claim to be serious about investing in future generations and skills, yet, on the other, we see them pull the ladder of opportunity that apprenticeships offer and cut them to the bone. It is vital that this cut not only be reversed, but be invested in so we can truly see an apprenticeship revolution take off here in Wales. So, I hope this Plaid debate today wakes up the Government to the reality of the consequences of cutting apprenticeships in Wales and the chaos that they are about to unleash on the sector if they don't reverse these damaging cuts. So, I really urge everybody to vote for the motion and our amendments today. Thank you.

I have seen with my own eyes, during a visit to the JES Group company in Port Talbot, the pride and skills that can be derived from an apprenticeship. It was a genuinely striking experience to see a local successful company develop an innovative and successful apprenticeship programme that provides local opportunities to local people. The benefits for the company, for the apprentices, and for the community were very apparent. And, of course, as we've heard, apprenticeships can be an effective route for social mobility and a means of escaping the multigenerational poverty trap, particularly in disadvantaged communities, where there are higher levels of intersectional inequality.

The concerns over the cuts to the apprenticeship programme and the disproportionate impact that this will have on already disadvantaged groups need to be considered seriously, and are ones that Plaid Cymru opposes. There are concerns about the future of colleges that help to train apprentices in disadvantaged communities, concerns regarding redundancies and concerns regarding the loss of courses, training expertise and opportunities for people not only to improve their lives but also to supply skills that are greatly needed by local employers. 

So, how does this decision give 'due regard' to the socioeconomic duty of the Minister for Economy? Because the data paint a clear picture of the inequality that will be created by cuts to the apprenticeships programme. As we've heard, 36 per cent of apprenticeships are in the health and social care sector, and 43 per cent of new apprenticeships that are started are in healthcare and public services.

And, of course, the majority of the workforce in the health and social care sector is predominantly female and they tend to be over 25 years old. Fifty-nine per cent of all apprenticeships that are started are started by women. So, when we talk about that 50 per cent reduction in the number of new apprenticeships starting, this is not spread evenly across demographic groups. It's going to hit women who are already facing barriers to employment and gender pay gaps, thereby exacerbating gender inequality.

Similarly, because a significant proportion of apprenticeships are in the healthcare sector, and apprentices tend to be over 25 generally—as I said, 56 per cent of those who start apprenticeships are over 25 anyway—these cuts are going to eliminate opportunities for many older people who are looking to reskill, upskill and who may have lost their jobs due to economic or industrial changes—and we face those in the area that I represent, with the news that looks like it’s going to break tomorrow with Tata—or prevent those who have had to leave the workforce due to childcare responsibilities, or other caring responsibilities, from returning through reskilling. Bearing in mind that the economic mission makes no mention of adult learners or reskilling, we must ask how much of a priority this group is for the Government.

In April, the Higher Education Funding Council for Wales will be abolished and its functions, which include the provision of apprenticeships, will be transferred to the Commission for Tertiary Education and Research. We have not yet received a statement from the Government on the priorities of the new body, or details about the specific funding allocations, although we understand that there will be funding for degree apprenticeships outlined in the commission's funding letter.

The Government’s amendment says that it will support degree apprenticeships, but you have stated, Minister, in a letter to the Economy, Trade and Rural Affairs Committee, that there will be no  transfers made from the economy MEG as part of the 2024-25 draft budget to support degree apprenticeships. And the Minister for education this morning in the committee was unable to confirm whether there is a funding allocation for degree apprenticeships within the allocation for HEFCW or the new commission without the transfer. Will you let us know, therefore, why you are not transferring money from your budget as you did last year, bearing in mind that degree apprenticeships, in providing an opportunity to combine working with part-time study at university, and with the Welsh Government fully funding the tuition fees, offer such an important route for people looking to reskill or upskill or try to improve their job opportunities?

As we’ve heard from everyone, apprenticeships offer unique opportunities for young people from disadvantaged socioeconomic backgrounds to earn money while learning, a life-changing pathway, leading not only to a career, but also to the building of cultural capital, important networks and employment contacts that would not otherwise be available to many of these young people otherwise.

And given the other cuts we’ve heard about—and I mentioned them in my questions to the education Minister—in terms of FE and HE, these cuts to apprenticeships will have a disproportionate impact on people who need an opportunity, not restrictions on their ability to live well and to live equally. These decisions are incompatible with the desire to create a fair Wales.

Diolch, Llywydd. Presiding Officer, I’m always glad to hear the passionate support for apprenticeships in debates in this Senedd. It’s particularly gratifying as the number of politicians who have been former apprentices is particularly quite low, and, as a proud former apprentice myself, you have heard me on many occasions, Presiding Officer, say before that some professions are overrepresented in politics in this very place, and we desperately need more former apprentices, from a range of trades, to diversify this place and many other institutions.

Llywydd, my apprenticeship was in engineering, and thousands of others are taking up apprenticeships in advanced manufacturing in my constituency of Alyn and Deeside. Airbus alone trained 4,000 apprentices in the last decade and, in Broughton, I’m proud to say that 70 per cent of UK senior management in Airbus in Broughton started their careers as apprentices. Now, these skills developed during the term of an apprenticeship will of course be vital to Airbus, they’ll be of course vital to the businesses that have other apprenticeship schemes, but they’re also vital to building the Welsh economy, and, no matter how many times Members try to talk Wales down, we really do sit on the edge of opportunity here in Cymru.

The race to net zero requires the development of a green economy, and the Minister and Welsh Government colleagues are right to focus on apprenticeships that can deliver in these skills. Presiding Officer, I recently had the opportunity to speak to the policy team at the Institute of Physics, and they really underscored this point when they told me that physics-related apprenticeships can play a vital and an important part in tackling the skills gap, but also, whilst we do that, bold solutions are needed. 

And apprenticeships can work, they do work, and, it's right, they are needed. They're needed at the forefront of the new economy, from green energy to the nuclear industry, to electrical engineering, construction, digital—all of these trades that we've spoken about already. And I'd always want more investment in apprenticeships. In fact, I find it difficult to find anyone more passionate or perhaps more qualified to speak in these debates. But, Presiding Officer, we have to understand that, like all spending, spending on apprenticeships has been damaged. It's been damaged by the failures of Westminster, it's been damaged by the failures of the UK Conservative Government. Apprenticeship funding, like other funding for other services, is paying the price of Liz Truss, it is paying the price of the Prime Minister, Rishi Sunak, now in crashing and damaging our economy, and it is paying the price of the constant chaos, the constant failure—

Will you take an intervention?

Of course.

Thank you. Would you not agree with me that we should all be rather grateful for the sake of our constituents that the very same Prime Minister that you have mentioned promised to get inflation down, and he has well and truly done that?

Janet, I mentioned two Prime Ministers within that, and I reflect on Liz Truss's small premiership, where she absolutely crashed the economy. The reason we're having this very debate now about the difficulties we find ourselves in is because of that Conservative Prime Minister. [Interruption.] I'll take another intervention if the Member wants one. 

I'm prepared to make an intervention if the Member for Alyn and Deeside allows me; it's very kind of him to do so. One of the key issues that has eaten away at budgets across the western hemisphere is inflation, not the premiership of Liz Truss, but inflation caused by the invasion of the Ukraine and the debts that we have to pay following COVID support.

I'm grateful to Sam Kurtz for making the intervention. I must say, to stand here in the Senedd with a straight face and say that it is nothing to do with the premiership of Liz Truss is very brave and is dishonest, perhaps, of the Member, but fair play to him. What I should say though is the constant, consistent failure—. We are paying the price of the consistent failure—of chaos—in the delivery of growth, which is the hallmark of the Government in Westminster, and, Presiding Officer, the loss of funding to Wales. It's right that we are aware of the loss of funding to Wales, particularly the EU replacement funds, taken by the Conservative Government. That money could well have been spent to fund apprenticeships in Wales. And the Conservative spokesperson says about a national honest conversation; perhaps he should have that conversation with his colleagues as well, because those rules specifically forbid the use of funds on Wales-wide programmes, and yet the Tories cheered on that situation back in 2021 and they do the same today. 

I see I'm running out of time, Presiding Officer, so I will wrap up here. But I'll say to our Plaid colleagues as well across the Chamber, in their discussions, the spokesperson for Plaid said in his opening contribution that it wasn't his job to do the job of Government; well, I agree, actually, it's not his job to do that, but what his job is to do, and it's his party's job, is to offer a serious alternative to the Welsh public of the Welsh Government. And I think if they're honest in their assessment today, you haven't had that and that Welsh public haven't had that. But, thankfully, Presiding Officer—and I will finish on this—with what I've said, the good news is, Presiding Officer, that Keir Starmer wants to support the return of the EU funding to Wales and the decision-making powers to Wales. So, once again, the answer is very clear for members of the public: if you want to support a Wales-wide apprenticeship programme, then, when the polls come, you should and must vote Labour. 

I'd like to briefly speak on Plaid Cymru's call for a sustainable funding model for apprenticeships. We're looking at an in-year Welsh Government budget cut of £17.5 million. There is a deep context behind this, and that is the European structural funds top-up that went towards the apprenticeship scheme here in Wales. That is now lost and is going to have a devastating effect. The Welsh Government knew that the European structural funds would be withdrawn and they committed to replacing this with £18 million from reserves. Where has that money gone? Why aren't we seeing it now? So, what we are actually going to see isn't just a Welsh Government £17.5 million cut, it is a £38 million reduction between the apprenticeship scheme's contract years of 2023-24 and 2024-25. It feels as though the Welsh Government are hiding behind their budget narrative, as it doesn't factor these structural fund losses. The real scale of the issue at hand here is much more significant and there are real concerns about transparency here. The Welsh Government has to ensure that contract values are being made available and this messaging is clear.

In reality, over several budgets and supplementary budgets, we have actually seen a continual chipping away of the apprenticeship budget to support other Welsh Government priorities; this is despite the Welsh Government's manifesto promise and the economy Minister's recent economic mission aims. But this has been masked by the fact that there have been potential European structural funds to top up contract values and offset any reductions.

Until recently, the commitment to 125,000 apprenticeships was all go. Providers were being informed that the Welsh Government's commitment to its apprenticeships target stood. And then, all of a sudden, there was a massive u-turn. There is a requirement to continue funding these apprenticeships, but there is expected to be insufficient funding available in the contract year 2024-25 to allow for the level of starts initially expected; this is why we're looking at 10,000 fewer apprenticeship starts. Welsh Government needs to commit to ensuring the contract value for 2024-25 is as high as the contract value for 2023-24, as we suggested previously. It is these contract values that really matter and that apprenticeship providers will be considering. There's a real lack of long-term thinking and any critical evaluation of the impacts of these decisions. Where will the proposed reduction in funding hit hardest?

This is why Plaid Cymru is calling for a long-term sustainable funding model for this scheme. Allocations on a one-year basis don't provide the certainty and clarity needed by businesses, learners and educators alike. This short-term thinking and uncertainty is not going to maximise the impact of apprenticeship schemes. Diolch yn fawr.

Diolch yn fawr iawn, Llywydd. It sounds like we're all agreed on something—that is, that apprenticeships are like gold dust; we just need more. And in my view, we would benefit from them being really focused in on the climate emergency. We here in Wales are blessed with a wealth of resources when it comes to renewable energy and we need to capitalise on this. Let's look at one example that many of us have spoken about in this Siambr. Over the past few months, there has been considerable progress made in achieving long-term capacity for floating offshore wind in the Celtic sea—FLOW. However, such progress can only be moved forward with a strategic workforce growth plan, which has to include a slew of apprenticeships.

Experts state that 10,000 new jobs are needed to manufacture just 1 GW of floating offshore wind. That means an estimated 20,000 new jobs will be created by future Celtic sea offshore wind, creating a real need for programmes that will allow us to train the up-and-coming workforce. If we are to be serious about achieving our net-zero targets, then it is fundamentally important that we push for the development of the right skills needed for the green energy sector.

I was, therefore, pleased to see that the Welsh Government has recognised the important role that apprenticeships can play as part of their net-zero skills action plan, but I am concerned about the potential impact that the proposed cuts to the apprenticeship programme will have on this ability to train our new workforce. If we are serious about tackling the climate crisis, then we must ensure that there are no more cuts that impact on the progress of the net-zero skills action plan. We are running out of time. We can't emphasise enough how important it is that we make the switch to green energy now—not tomorrow or the day after, but right now.

The United Kingdom Conservative Government has shown how little they care about the climate crisis, but we here in Wales can do more, but we have to do it at speed and at scale. Apprenticeships in renewable energy are already a possibility. For instance, the offshore wind energy company Ørsted already have a well-established apprenticeship scheme for wind turbine technicians, as well as providing funds for STEM-related training and skills, but the clock is ticking and we need action. We need to lay down a realistic and sustainable action plan that details the types of policies we can develop for skills delivery and workforce development, and apprenticeships are the backbone of the workforce that's needed. Diolch yn fawr iawn.

I just wanted to make a short contribution. As Jack Sargeant quite rightly said, there's plenty of support for apprenticeships in this Chamber on a cross-party basis, and I think it's great to hear so many people sharing their enthusiasm for ensuring that we have got people going into apprenticeships and that that pipeline isn't cut off or restricted in some way. We know how important they are to the Welsh economy, and I'm afraid that when you do cut apprenticeship funding, it has knock-on effects elsewhere, which could cause costs to the public purse in Wales and may cost the Welsh Government dearly.

I know that in Conwy and Denbighshire, where we have had very many apprenticeships—many thousands, in fact—since 2019, there would be a real serious impact on those businesses that rely on those skills that those apprenticeships are learning. And as has been said by others in this Chamber, the impact on our healthcare sector and our public sector also should not be overlooked, because at the end of the day, we need to make sure that we have people with the skills that the Welsh workforce will need in the future. The fact is that there have been, just in Conwy and Denbighshire alone, over 800 apprenticeships in the healthcare and public sector parts of the apprenticeship programmes, just in the first three quarters of last year alone.

We know also that demand for apprenticeships has been increasing. It has not been decreasing. The Welsh Government has tried to suggest that it's been decreasing in previous years, and that's why it made cuts to the budget in those years, but of course demand is increasing. More and more people are becoming aware of apprenticeship opportunities. There are more apprenticeship programmes that people can link themselves into. And that's why I don't think it's a good idea to cut this apprenticeship budget. I don't think it's a very good long-term view to have. I think it will have catastrophic consequences for the Welsh economy. And particularly when you consider that elsewhere in the UK, investment in apprenticeships has actually been growing.

Just in 2021, the UK Government allocated a further £200 million to apprenticeships. In the budget, just last year, a further £50 million was allocated to pilots of apprenticeships, to drive the UK economy forward, including in engineering and manufacturing. So, we have this situation where elsewhere in the UK investment in apprenticeships is going up, whereas in Wales we seem to be rowing back from apprenticeships, in spite of their growing popularity. And it will have a catastrophic impact on our economy, because if we don't have the skilled workforce that we need, we won't be attracting the inward investment, we won't be having the new businesses starting up that need those skills, and we'll have those skills gaps, particularly in our national health service, our care workforce, and the public sector, which so desperately depend on these things as well.

So, I'd like to see the Welsh Government looking again at the way it prioritises its budget. Everyone keeps saying, 'Where are you going to find this money?' We know the Welsh Government has spent a huge sum of money already on things that it didn't necessarily have to do, that it could have deprioritised. We mentioned 20 mph zones and changing speed limits for one of them. You didn't have to do that. This is something, I think, that is a much more important thing and ought to have been prioritised in a much better way. So, I would urge the Welsh Government to look again at the budgets. Just in the Grŵp Llandrillo Menai college alone, we know that the cuts next year, the impact of those cuts will be in excess of £5 million, with hundreds of apprentices no longer able to take up those apprenticeship opportunities, and it's a real retrograde step. So, I urge you, Minister, to look again within your department, see where you're focusing your resources, and I'm sure that you'll find lots of wasteful places from where you could divert resources to this budget line.

I believe the Welsh Government has a strong record in terms of developing apprenticeship programmes here in Wales, and it really is very concerning that we're now in a position where some of that progress will be weakened. And as Huw Irranca-Davies and Jack Sargeant said, it is very much a result of UK Government austerity, their failure to replace European funding as promised, the apprenticeship levy, and their general approach to austerity. Of course, this will have consequences here in Wales, and we've heard about some of those already in this debate today.

I know that, locally for me, Coleg Gwent anticipate offering around 100 fewer new apprenticeship places from September of this year. Much of their apprenticeship provision is in the area of manufacturing, engineering and construction, so local employers will see a decline in availability of places in those sectors. I also know that the college has been working hard with numerous employers who want to grow apprenticeships in, for example, digital, hospitality and health, and those sectors will now have to wait until further funding becomes available to grow apprenticeships in a way that they and the college would like to see.

I'm also aware of training providers who particularly focus on disengaged young people through apprenticeships and training, and, in doing so, help us tackle the number of young people not in employment, education or training. Of course, that is vital work that is at the heart of our social justice agenda here in Wales, as well as helping to meet the future needs of our economy, in terms of available skills and available employees.

I also think there is work to be done in terms of existing apprenticeships, in terms of the way that we structure them and the content. I hear many people talk about the 14-19 agenda, and I know the economy Minister works with the education Minister on these matters. Sometimes, young people at 14, who want a more vocational experience, do not have the opportunities and the choice available to them that they would wish to have, and they sometimes continue in school when they would like to go to the local FE college, for example. And as a result of not having the choices that they would prefer, they disengage, they don't go along to school as often as they should, and then sometimes, when they go to the college, when they are 16 and they can start vocational courses at the college, they find that they do not meet the required numeracy and literacy skills, because of that disengagement from age 14. So, I do think we need to join up better, in terms of schools and FE colleges, to give better choice and better quality to our young people.

And I also hear a lot of people mentioning that they think the balance is not always right in apprenticeships, for example, those in health and social care, in terms of the hands on, learning by doing elements, as opposed to the more academic aspects. They believe that to be work ready for employers, and to be better engaged with their own education and training experience, it would be better if it was more orientated towards that hands on, learning by doing approach.

So, I do think there are issues around the apprenticeships that we have, of course there are, and they could be strengthened in different ways, but, ultimately, until we get that UK Labour Government working with our Government here in Wales, moving away from that really disabling austerity agenda that's doing so much damage, we won't be in a position to do what so many of us in the Chamber would like to see us doing in terms of apprenticeships and so much else. So, the sooner that UK Labour Government comes, the better.

The Minister for Economy, Vaughan Gething.

Diolch, Llywydd, and thank you to Members for their contributions from across the Chamber in this debate. There's much to agree upon, in terms of the value of apprenticeships. The challenge, though, is: what does the Government do with the challenges that we face in having a budget that balances? UK Government choices and high inflation mean that our budget next year is now worth £1.3 billion less compared with the figures originally set out by the Chancellor two years ago. Or, to put that another way, Cwm Taf Morgannwg, last year, had £1.2 billion to run all of their services—midwives, health visitors, local practice, community services, and a range of hospitals—and we have lost more than their entire budget from the Welsh Government budget. In addition to that, the loss of EU replacement funds means that we are £375 million a year worse off, or to put it another way, the entire revenue budget of Caerphilly council. That is the gap that we have to make up.

Now, I've heard much about the impact of these Tory cuts—a brave effort from one Tory to say that they aren't her cuts at all. We haven't heard much about whether, for example, health and local government should be budget priorities for the Welsh Government. That has a consequence. We haven't heard anything about which areas should be cut to protect apprenticeships. The levelling-up funds, which we have talked about a little today, specifically forbid local authorities from pooling money together for these sorts of all-Wales programmes, even those with the value, the purpose and the support around this Chamber like apprenticeships.

It's worth bearing in mind how much we used European funds: over £200 million in the last round of European funds were spent on supporting apprenticeships. That isn't a sum of money to find easily in most circumstances, never mind nearly 14 years deep into austerity. Despite those UK Government cuts, we'll continue to invest in quality apprenticeships to provide both our young people, and indeed as part of our all-age programme, successful futures for our apprentices.

In the first two full financial years of this Senedd term, this Welsh Government invested £273 million in apprenticeships. Last year, we invested £147 million in apprenticeships—the highest figure spent in any single year. We've committed over £400 million to apprenticeships in this Senedd term already. I have been clear that painful decisions have been taken within the economy budget. Within that budget, I chose to prioritise apprenticeships, and that in itself has consequences for every other area of my budget. We talked about those in front of the culture committee today: the reality that protecting that spend in relative terms has real consequences everywhere else. But I did that because I believe that investment in apprenticeships does help to build stronger careers, to earn more in work and offer progression. That's why this does remain the biggest individual spend priority within my departmental budget. We will invest £138 million next year in apprenticeships for the long-term benefits and careers that they deliver. That means painful choices for other budget lines that have been reduced.

Apprenticeship starts over the whole of this term will at least be at the same level as in the last entire Senedd term. We continue to focus on those sectors where we know apprenticeship opportunities will make the greatest difference. They will still continue to support our young person's guarantee, helping young people at the start of their careers, and businesses will still be able to recruit apprentices to find opportunities to develop their own staff. It will though, honestly, mean fewer apprenticeship opportunities, especially in those areas that have not been identified as priorities. I recognise what Jane Dodds said about a key priority area in the transition to net zero. So, we'll continue to prioritise sectors where we believe we can make the biggest difference.

Our recognised strengths in Wales and our growth potential continues to make Wales a great place to invest. Our economic priorities build on our reputation as a stable Government that businesses can work with and plan with. Despite pressures on our budgets, we will continue to invest in those sectors and skills that will drive growth and economic renewal, and that includes continuing to invest in our degree apprenticeship programme, with the new rail engineer programme starting in January this year, and construction coming on stream in this September. [Interruption.] I'll give way.

Thank you for taking the intervention. Thank you. You talked about budget pressures and the fact that the UK Government isn't funding Wales properly. If Labour were to get into power in Westminster in the next election, would Keir Starmer give Wales fair funding, and will you commit to putting pressure on a UK Labour Government to give Wales the fair funding we need in order to fund these projects?

I'll come back to future apprenticeship funding—I'm very pleased you've made the point. I do, though, want to turn to deal with some of the other points made in the debate.

Jack Sargeant was absolutely right, the UK Government designed out the ability of the Welsh Government to take part in all-Wales apprenticeship programmes. They knew that would mean that the apprenticeship programme would be broken. I'm glad Huw Irranca-Davies mentioned the apprenticeship levy. The finance Minister at the time received one note—it was Mark Drakeford at the time—that there would be a sum coming in with the apprenticeship levy. The problem is, £9 million more was taken out of Wales. Introducing the apprenticeship levy took £9 million out of Wales. Let's hear nothing from the Tories or their apologists that stand by the apprenticeship levy as a success—it is a cost to Wales.

It has been suggested we should have a sustainable long-term funding model. I'd like to have that; it's an aspiration for the long term. However, the reality of further round upon round of UK Government austerity means we can't do that. In the final year of the current three-year funding settlement, we have no certainty of our funding beyond that. We have no idea what will come from the UK Government budget in March. It may not be good news. We expect the UK Government to undertake a multi-year spending review to provide us with long-term certainty. However, we don't have details of whether that will be the case.

To deal with the point around the gap in contract values, it is roughly £40 million. If we were to make up that gap for apprenticeship providers, that is more than the combined budget of Amgueddfa Cymru and the National Library of Wales. We could close both organisations and still not meet the gap to meet current contract values. Nobody but nobody should give the Tories a free pass on breaking referenda promises, on breaking manifesto promises, on breaking promises made within this Chamber. This is the direct consequence of Tory broken promises; the direct consequence of Wales having less say over less money. And it is rank hypocrisy in this Chamber, and through the media, for Tory Members to complain about the fact that we can't spend more money in this area, whilst being cheerleaders for a UK-Government approach that is taking money out of Wales—more than £1.3 billion less than two years ago, the loss of revenue from EU funds the size of the entire Caerphilly council revenue budget. That is what they have done, and yet, still, they want us to be cheerleaders for Wales having less say over less money. This Government will not do that.

In contrast, UK Labour have committed that, if we form the next UK Labour Government, the budgets and the powers will be restored where they belong: to this Welsh Government, to this Senedd. I am personally committed to restoring a national apprenticeship programme; this Government remains committed to apprenticeships for our economic future. I'll be proud to be able to do so with the pace that I think our country deserves, when we have the funding we deserve as well.

Luke Fletcher to reply to the debate.

Diolch, Llywydd. I'd like to thank all Members who contributed in the debate. I think, actually, what was reinforced in the debate was something that we all already knew to be true, which is that, across the parties, we all accept the importance of apprenticeships. And I hope, actually, the Minister realises that on the apprenticeship agenda, he has a number of allies across the Chamber. Some of us won't be nominating him for First Minister, but on this agenda, he has allies indeed.

Huw Irranca touched on some key points, I think: EU funding and the apprenticeship levy. On EU funding, it highlights the debate we had yesterday: the need for fairness in funding for Wales, which we aren't seeing right now. And there's the issue with the levy, of course, needing to be addressed, as the Minister referenced, with Wales losing as a result of the levy not working via the Barnett formula. You also touched on the need for difficult conversations, and I agree.

The Minister asked what's a Government to do. Well, I'd start, perhaps, with a willingness to engage with opposition parties on the budget process a bit more, and a bit more transparently. You know, I spoke about allies here. One idea, potentially, is if we were all to work on a way forward as a Senedd—as a Senedd, highlight the priorities that we wish to see in the budget, a sort of 'one Wales' budget in a time of fiscal crisis. That is a personal thought, Llywydd, but it was building much on what Huw Irranca set out and the difficult conversations that we're going to need to have. The more those conversations are open, the more that we have—each and every one of us—the data, the information to be able to have those difficult conversations, I think the better. 

A key thing that a number of Members touched on was the cross-sector effect of apprenticeship cuts. We've talked in the budget process so far about priority areas. The Conservative amendments actually touch on this in the sense that we talked in the budget process about health being a priority area. Well, cuts to apprenticeships will negatively affect the health portfolio in the sense that we're seeing cuts to apprenticeships in health and social care. So, if the logic follows that health is a priority, then surely that also would mean the support for apprenticeships within health and social care should also be a priority. I think it was Darren Millar, actually, who pointed out that policy cuts in this particular area will have negative effects in other areas, therefore costs in other areas, only then snowballing into other problems. 

If we aren't careful, if we don't play this right, then we are, I think, talking about a serious gamble, and a costly gamble at that. We'll stifle our ability to transition to net zero. We'll stifle our ability to achieve our ambitions in the new tech sectors—the semiconductor sector just an example. And we'll have further failed to deliver public services to the standards we all want to see. I do try to avoid dramatic language, Llywydd, but all signs point to this cut having a devastating impact not just in the apprenticeship area specifically, but across all sectors of our economy and across all portfolios within the Government.

I'd thank again all Members for their contributions. I hope this is actually the start of us being able to work together on this particular agenda; as I said, the Minister has allies in this particular area. So, I move the motion, I hope Members will support it, and I hope Members will also be supporting the Conservative amendments in this case as well. Diolch. 

The proposal is to agree the motion without amendment. Does any Member object? [Objection.] There are objections. We will therefore defer voting until voting time. 

Voting deferred until voting time.