1. What assessment has the Welsh Government made of the impact of Brexit on Newport West? OQ60538

I thank Jayne Bryant for that question, Llywydd. Leaving the single market has worsened trading conditions with Europe, to the detriment of businesses and consumers across Wales. Newport West is also affected by the UK Government’s failure to replace more than £1 billion of Wales's European Union funding, while Office for Budget Responsibility analysis concludes that leaving the European Union will shrink the UK economy by 4 per cent.

Diolch, Prif Weinidog. Thank you for those stark figures. We were told that Brexit would result in endless opportunities for frictionless trade and new deals around the world. While some of the promises made by the Vote Leave campaign look good on paper, the reality is now very different for people living in my Constituency and across Wales. We've heard this week about supply chain issues causing medicine shortages for people with long-term health conditions, including diabetes, epilepsy and breast cancer. Brexit is affecting imports, and Welsh businesses looking to export their produce today face barriers that simply would not exist if we were part of the EU. And the Tories have broken their manifesto commitment to secure a trade agreement with the US. Failure to reach an agreement on tariff-free access to Canadian markets is especially hampering our cheese exports, an industry I know the First Minister takes a very keen interest in. First Minister, would you agree with me that broken promises around Brexit show yet again how the Tories cannot be trusted, are failing the people of Wales, and how we urgently need a General Election?

Llywydd, Members of the Senedd will remember very vividly the promises that were made here on the floor of the Senedd—how Wales would not be a penny worse off as a result of leaving the European Union. Although, in fact, of course, as we know, we are £1.3 billion worse off, and will be worse off every single year as a result of that broken promise. Jayne Bryant, Llywydd, referred to frictionless trade, and, of course, she is right that, in that Canadian case—. Do you remember the days when Liam Fox used to go round telling us that these would be the easiest trade deals you've ever seen, how we would strike them round the world? Well, here we are, with a Canadian trade deal, where, on 31 December, the ability of Welsh exporters to deliver into the Canadian market stopped. We were part of the EU cheese quota; now that is no longer available to Welsh exporters. We have to rely instead on the rest-of-the-world quota—a far smaller quota, and far more difficult to sell. Only yesterday, cheese producers in north Wales contacted the Welsh Government to point to the fact that, as of 15 January, they will need new animal health certificates in order to be able to export their goods on to Northern Ireland. Do you remember what the then Prime Minister Boris Johnson said—how over his dead body would there be a trade barrier down the Irish Sea? He said that, as I remember, several weeks before he then concluded a deal doing exactly that. And the consequence of that will now be felt amongst Welsh food producers in the north of Wales. Of course Jayne Bryant is right, Llywydd—the so-called Brexit bonus has been exposed time after time for what it is: new barriers to trade, fewer opportunities for Welsh businesses, and an economy that is, for every single household, worth less than it would have been had we still been part of the European Union trading arrangements.

The Majority of people voted for Brexit in Wales, and in most of your constituencies, didn't they? Brexit has devolved—[Interruption.] Can you still hear me?

I can hear you. Carry on.

Brexit has delivered a myriad of trade deals, as you well know, First Minister, of great benefit to Wales and the rest of the UK. Your own Government website highlights the benefits of the UK shared prosperity fund as well, and states that,

'The Shared Prosperity Fund...will provide new opportunities for local communities, support the development and growth of local businesses as well as supporting the recovery of our town centres.'

[Interruption.]

Now I can't hear the Member. So, if we can be a little quieter so we can hear what's being asked. 

First Minister, the fund has seen millions of pounds awarded to projects across Newport, contributing to the revival of local communities. Will you commit to the championing of the shared prosperity fund and acknowledge the positive impacts that the fund has delivered across Newport and Wales?

Well, Llywydd, first of all, the myriad of trade deals to which the Member refers are, in the main, simply deals that were already available to us on better terms while we were inside the European Union. The Office for Budget Responsibility, the office on which the UK Government relies for its forecasting, says that all of those trade deals—all of those trade deals—will make not a jot of difference to the 4 per cent shrinkage in the UK economy. So, not only are they same old deals that we had already, but they will not mitigate the harmful impact of Brexit that the OBR, time and time again, reports in its six-monthly updates on the UK economy. 

And as for the shared prosperity fund, of course the Welsh Government is not able to champion that fund, a fund that does Wales down, that gives us far less money than we had under the previous arrangements, and from which the Welsh Government has been deliberately excluded by the UK Government. How could I possibly champion a fund in which the Welsh Government has not been consulted, has not been involved in the decision making and which, in fact, results in fragmentation of those programmes that otherwise were available here in Wales: the rural development plan, the end of that, and apprenticeship programmes denuded of EU funding. What is there to champion in such—in such—in such a second-rate way of providing for the things that Wales needs?