7. 7. Debate by Individual Members under Standing Order 11.21(iv): The Fourth Industrial Revolution

Part of the debate – in the Senedd at 4:04 pm on 5 April 2017.

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Photo of Vikki Howells Vikki Howells Labour 4:04, 5 April 2017

Today’s debate marks a change in focus from that on the foundational economy a few weeks ago, but it is an area that we must equally get right if we are to craft the Welsh economy of the future. For my contribution, I’d like to focus on the scale of the challenge automation could represent, the opportunities we have to rise to this challenge, and the skills our workforce will need in order to do so. As the motion reminds us, an estimated 700,000 jobs in Wales are at risk through automation, a figure all the more staggering when set against the fact that the number of people in employment in Wales stood at a little over 1.4 million in December 2016. This means that automation could threaten 1 in every 2 Welsh jobs.

Automation does indeed cast a long shadow. This is particularly true for sectors such as manufacturing; 11.6 per cent of the Welsh workforce works in this sector, higher than England, Scotland or Northern Ireland. The northern Valleys have a disproportionate number of people employed in manufacturing. Automation clearly moulds the shape of any future industrial strategy. An article by academics from the Massachusetts Institute of Technology and Boston University says we may already be too late. Noting the fourfold increase in robots in western Europe and the US over a 15-year period, the article says automation has already impacted on jobs and wages.

Yet secondly, as the motion recognises, here in Wales we have the expertise, skills and resources to enable us to take a lead amongst these emerging industries. Professor Klaus Schwab, founder of the World Economic Forum, has suggested that our management of natural resources will be a key manifestation of the fourth industrial revolution. In a previous debate, we explored the potential of the blue economy provided by the waters all around us, and I spoke about the opportunities to the Welsh economy inherent in the marine renewables sector. The evidence from tidal lagoons is particularly persuasive: six lagoons, many around the Welsh coast, representing a £40 billion investment, creating 6,500 long-term jobs, generating nearly £3 billion of GVA annually; businesses in Wales, and in the northern Valleys in particular, benefiting from an enhanced supply chain.

I have already mentioned the importance of manufacturing as an employer in the Valleys. It is not too great a jump to see that this is an area where productivity, and work, could be enhanced by learning the lessons of the future. Just as our approach must be rapid and more agile, companies succeeding in the fourth industrial revolution may need to be smaller and more flexible. Not only could companies operate more closely to their customer base, for example, here in Wales, but manufacturing could become more sustainable in high-wage countries.

Cheap labour, it has been said, won’t be cheap. Instead of fewer employees, companies will need what have been described as different employees, with different skills. This is the third point I wish to cover. I am glad that education and skills were central to the last ‘Innovation Wales’ strategy. I hope they would retain their place in any refreshed document; in particular, that there would be consideration of adult learning and upskilling. We know these are key to ensuring automation doesn’t lead to job losses.

I had a useful discussion with Colegau Cymru on Monday about skills and apprenticeships. This could be a great chance to strengthen our FE sector. The ‘Innovation Wales’ strategy spoke of integrating innovation into all aspects of the curriculum. We must give our children and young people the skills of the future.

I would like to briefly offer my congratulations to Optimus Primate. This was a team of year 9 students from Ysgol Gyfun Rhydywaun in my constituency, who recently won the Tomorrow’s Engineers EEP Robotics Challenge. They built, programmed and controlled Lego robots. They also developed their own solution to a scientific problem set by NASA and Lego Education. These are the workers of the future, of the fourth industrial revolution, and it is encouraging to see they are developing the skills they will need right now.

To close, I would like to note that the first industrial revolution was marked by significant socioeconomic changes and a staggering increase in poverty. We must ensure that, like the pupils of Ysgol Gyfun Rhydywaun, the current and future Welsh workforce develop the necessary skills so that they can make a success of this fourth industrial revolution.