I want to write to Lord Taverne
Lord Taverne: ...with the European Union, matters which are integral to our domestic, economic and political health, as well as the wider international picture. Some Labour voices urge us to stop talking about Brexit. Why on earth would we do that? Brexit is not done; it was a profound mistake, the dire consequences of which are becoming more evident every day. According to the polls, the public now...
Lord Taverne: ...there is an ominous talk of a Bill “to defend the judiciary from being drawn into political questions”. Nowadays, blind loyalty is what pays. When eminent Tories rebelled to rule out a no-deal Brexit they promptly had the Whip withdrawn. On the other hand, a loyal Johnsonite such as Priti Patel can breach the Ministerial Code with impunity even when an independent inquiry finds her...
Lord Taverne: My Lords, one glaring omission from the Chancellor’s Budget speech was an assessment of the likely economic consequences of Brexit. The early signs are not encouraging, with dramatic falls in trade between Britain and the European Union. There has been a drop of some 20% to 70% in exports and imports to and from Germany, France and Italy. Of course some of that is due to the pandemic, but...
Lord Taverne: ...from Brussels with his free trade agreement, he was greeted with adulatory praise from most of the Conservative press and his party. It was, he announced, the realisation of the claims made for Brexit in the referendum and in the last Conservative manifesto. Well, will it really be the journey into the sunlit uplands? Not according to the vast majority of economists, for reasons powerfully...
Lord Taverne: ...that no substantial progress has been made in the difficult negotiations for a free trade agreement by the statutory deadline at the end of this year. We may indeed end up after all with a no-deal Brexit and a situation of chaos. Only today, Mr Boris Johnson has announced that he is happy to leave without a free trade agreement. No doubt the lie machine will get to work to prove that...
Lord Taverne: ...face in the near future about the future of Britain as a whole. It is the question of whether we should hold a new referendum. I want to stress how strong the arguments are in favour of doing so. Brexiteers say that we are ignoring the people’s will but they seem to assume that the people’s will is the same now as it was in 2016—or will be by the time we hold a referendum. Since...
Lord Taverne: ...great admiration for the noble Viscount as a scientist; he has written some excellent books about science. The evidence produced by the IFS and many others—that the future we face from a no-deal Brexit would be disastrous and that, in any event, Brexit means we would be much poorer—is dismissed by Brexiteers because any evidence that contradicts their beliefs is dismissed as more of...
Lord Taverne: ...advanced by the noble and learned Lord, Lord Goldsmith. So, without a deal at the end of the EU summit, Boris will be legally required to send a letter requesting an Article 50 extension of the Brexit debate. Thirdly, and most controversially, Boris will not be Prime Minister at the end of October but will probably still be leader of his party. Why? He cannot send the letter that he will...
Lord Taverne: ...among many industrialists that leaving on 31 October at least brings certainty. They could not be more wrong. As the Governor of the Bank of England told the Commons Treasury Committee, a no-deal Brexit is, “the worst way to resolve … uncertainty”. It is obvious why. By definition, a no-deal Brexit means that we will not have a trade deal when we leave, after which it will take long...
Lord Taverne: ...times—it is not an easy read—I am impressed. First, as many speakers have pointed out, it provides convincing evidence once again of what would be the disastrous consequences of a no-deal Brexit, and I trust that the Commons will rule out that option conclusively. The report should be, or should have been, compulsory reading for those who plan to vote for the Clarke amendment, for a...
Lord Taverne: ...pressures: those Conservative MPs who cannot support a party 170 of whose public representatives have recently signed a letter in which they seem quite happy to tolerate the prospect of a no-deal Brexit. What an extraordinary retreat from sanity by a once-great party. No wonder people abroad feel we have gone mad. Similarly, I admire the Labour MPs who decided they could not support a...
Lord Taverne: ...by the Labour membership and supporters, unfortunately, a small group of ideologues has captured the party and defies the view of the vast majority of its members. Corbyn and his clique support Brexit, and even seek ways of making common cause with Theresa May to achieve it, whereas the membership opposes Brexit, and is in favour of remain and a new vote. Corbyn has behaved dishonourably,...
Lord Taverne: ...in this House, that once the Government declared that they would not stay in the customs union and the single market, we were heading for no deal. Whatever ingenious schemes might be devised by top Brexit department civil servants, the Irish border question would remain insoluble—and it still is. The May deal is probably as near as any scheme can get to a solution, but still does not...
Lord Taverne: My Lords, it is a refrain constantly repeated by Brexiteers and Ministers that, somehow, a new referendum would be undemocratic because it shows contempt for the people’s vote to leave. I wonder whether they have ever thought about what democracy means. It is the essence of democracy that people are allowed to change their mind; dictatorships forbid it. Democracies allow changes of...
Lord Taverne: ...of this Act”— which is the bulk of this Bill— “come into force on such day as a Minister of the Crown may by regulations made by statutory instrument appoint”. But if there is no Brexit, no Minister will appoint a day and the Bill will never take effect. I believe that no Brexit is a very real possibility. Why? First, the odds are that there will be no deal. Despite the recent...
Lord Taverne: My Lords, there has been one change since we last debated Brexit: Boris Johnson has gone. What will be his legacy? On this I differ profoundly from what was said by the noble Lord, Lord Heseltine, with whom I normally agree. He thought what a wise decision Mrs May had made in putting Johnson in charge of the negotiations. I believe the verdict of history will be that Mrs May’s choice of...
Lord Taverne: ...be invaluable for finding out what proposals may be acceptable. That has not always been the case for the proposals put forward by our EU negotiators. Sanctions are yet a further example of what Brexit would mean: losing control rather than taking it back.
Lord Taverne: .... The poorest fifth of households will be the hardest hit. Will the Government be able to enforce such extreme hardships? Indeed, I believe that there is more bad news in the pipeline—more bad Brexit news—than is generally expected. The Government still rely on proposals for a new trade deal that they hope to negotiate. These may bring temporary unity to the Conservative Party, but...
Lord Taverne: My Lords, not for the first time I shall express a minority viewpoint. I believe that there will be no deal. The excellent report by the EU Select Committee Brexit: Deal or no Deal pointed out the devastating consequences of no deal but did not address its likelihood—and if it is even a possibility this Bill requires major amendment. Why is no deal likely? The Government envisage three...
Lord Taverne: ...-manufactured modules, use of which the Farmer review recommends. Some 92% of the workforce building the modular homes that Pocket specialises in are EU immigrants. But now we face the prospect of Brexit. Many EU workers are going home, not only because of uncertainty about their longer-term future rights of residence, but because they no longer feel welcome. There are numerous reports of...