“(1) The Chancellor of the Exchequer must, within six months of this Act being passed, publish an assessment of the impact of the changes in this Act on household finances.

(2) The assessment in subsection (1) must consider how households at a range of different income levels are affected by these changes.” —

This new clause requires the Chancellor to publish an assessment of the changes in this Act on the finances of households at a range of different income levels.

Brought up, and read the First time.

I beg to move, That the clause be read a Second time.

As we know, households currently face a number of challenges, and the measures in the Bill and the Budget will serve only to exacerbate them. At the time of the Budget, the OBR confirmed that real household disposal income will be

“1¼ per cent lower by the start of 2029. The bulk of this difference (around 85 per cent) is explained by policies announced in this Budget.”

It is because of the measures in the Bill and the Budget that growth is forecast to be lower over the forecast period than predicted in March last year. Higher borrowing means that interest rates are forecast to be higher for longer, which means that mortgage rates will be higher for longer. Borrowing costs have hit a 27-year high under this Chancellor—hardly the stability that is her watchword. The Government inherited inflation at target; since then inflation has increased, which means less money in people’s pockets. All those effects will be felt by the working families the Government said were their priority at the general election.

As we discussed in Committee of the whole House, the Bill’s education tax will hit people who have chosen to prioritise providing for their children’s education in the place that they consider best suits their child’s needs. The Conservatives are for 100% of children, and we back parents’ freedom to choose; the Labour party is adopting a self-defeating ideological approach to our education system, including academies, that seeks to divide. The education tax will hit 100,000 children with special needs who are in independent schools but without education, health and care plans. We have already seen children withdrawn from schools and schools closing as a result.

Measures such as increased alcohol duty, air passenger duty and vehicle duty will impact household finances directly, and borrowing costs have risen, meaning hard-working families will have to pay the costs—[Interruption.] Excuse me, my voice is going. Any impact that changes in the Bill will have on households should be closely monitored, which is what the new clause seeks to achieve.

As the shadow Minister set out, the new clause would require the Government to report on the likely impact of the tax measures on households across the income distribution. The Government already published that information alongside the autumn Budget in the “Impact on households” report, which illustrated the distributional impact of Government measures that have a direct impact on household incomes. Those measures come from welfare benefits, tax paid or benefits in kind received through public services by UK residents.

The analysis shows that the Government decisions at the autumn Budget 2024 and spending review 2025 phase 1 are progressive. Increases to public service spending means that households are, on average, better off in 2025-26 as a result of those decisions. The impacts of Government decisions benefit households in the lowest-income deciles the most, on average, as a percentage of income in 2025-26. The increases in tax are concentrated on the highest-income households. Overall, on average, all but the richest 10% of households will benefit from policy decisions in 2025-26.

Since the assessment of the impact of the Budget on households across the income distribution has already been published, I ask the shadow Minister to withdraw the new clause.

In the light of my failing voice I will not move the next new clause, so this will be the last time I will speak in the Committee. I thank you, Ms Vaz, and Mr Mundell, the Clerks and other officials, as well as Committee members. I also echo the thanks for the Chartered Institute of Taxation and others, and I thank Billy Falcon in my office, who has done sterling work in supporting me. I am grateful to the Minister for his comments. I am sure the rest of the Committee will be delighted that I beg to ask leave to withdraw the clause.

Clause, by leave withdrawn.

On a point of order, Ms Vaz. I thank you and Mr Mundell for chairing for the Committee. I thank all the Clerks and officials who have looked after us so well this week, and officials in the Treasury who have helped me to prepare for the Bill. I also thank all hon. Members present—both my hon. Friends and Opposition Members.

On a personal level, I have particularly enjoyed interacting with the lead Opposition spokesperson, the hon. Member for Grantham and Bourne, with our roles having been switched following events last July. Despite our political differences, he is someone with whom I enjoy debating important matters relating to Finance Bills. I thank all Members for their time, and I look forward to seeing them on Report.

I add my thanks to all the Clerks who have supported me in this role. I also say to Mr MacDonald that you have done exceptionally well as a new Member on a new Committee. Take this as a good learning exercise—we learn every day.

Bill, as amended, accordingly to be reported.

Committee rose.

FB 13 The Wine and Spirit Trade Association (WSTA) – Clauses 63 to 64

FB 14 Taylor Wessing LLP – Clauses 37-46 & Schedules 8-13